Here is a list of things that I do not want to talk about: whether to defend or foul when up by three points, permitter switching, turnovers, defensive rebounding, free-throw shooting, and overtime periods. These topics would only serve to re-elevate my blood pressure to unsafe levels.

Therefore, I will only say this. The Michigan State Spartans had the game in Iowa City won, but then an incredibly long series of very unlucky events took place that resulted in a loss. Probability can be cruel.

As a result, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding how the 2022-2023 season will play out. As always, I will lean on a series of mathematical tools to better understand that uncertainty.

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings with 90% of the regular season now complete.

Purdue took a loss to Indiana over the weekend, but with 13 wins, and with all other Big Ten teams with at least seven losses, the Boilermakers have officially clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Table 1 also reminds us that there are eight other Big Ten teams with either seven or eight losses.

Of those eight teams, the four teams at 11-7 all still have a non-zero chance to grab a share of the Big Ten title if those teams can win out and if Purdue loses out. As Table 2 below shows, those odds are slim and range from just 0.7% to 2.3%.

Table 3 below shows the updated expected win table for the Big Ten regular season.

It is now clear that Michigan State's game against Minnesota will not be rescheduled and the Spartans will only play 19 Big Ten games. As a result, expected wins are no longer an apples-to-apples comparison. But, Table 3 does provide a good view of which teams are more or less likely to win out.