The 2023-24 basketball season is off to a strange start for the Michigan State Spartans. We are just six weeks into the season, and the fortunes of the Spartans have already reserved course multiple times. Even within a single game, Michigan State has looked like a Final Four team one minute and an N.I.T. team the next.
This past weekend at Little Caesar's Arena against the Baylor Bears, it was the Final Four version of the Spartans who showed up. That version of the team finally decided to hang around for the full 40 minutes. As a result, Michigan State blew the doors off the No. 6 ranked team in the country.
Despite the big win, the Spartans have a current record of just 5-5. Michigan State has already taken enough losses to seriously impact the chance at a Big Ten title and of earning a lofty seed in March. It is hard to know whether Spartans fans should be optimistic or pessimistic.
Prior to the Spartans' first Big Ten game against Wisconsin, I provided an overview of Michigan State's Big Ten prospects, including expected wins, title odds, strength of schedule, and even Big Ten tournament odds.
Two weeks and three games later, it is time to revisit this simulation and analysis. I have updated the results of each game as well as the efficiency data from Kenpom to arrive at a revised set of predictions for the trajectory of the Big Ten season.
Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds
With 9% of the Big Ten season complete, it is time to introduce what I refer to as the enhanced Big Ten standings. It includes the current Big Ten record of each team in addition to four other pieces of data. It is shown below in Table 1.
First, it contains the current Kenpom rankings and adjusted efficiency margins (AdjEM) for each team as of the morning of Dec. 18. Second, it contains the "plus/minus" for each team. This value is equal to the number of road wins minus the number of homes losses.
Third, Table 1 lists the current "luck" for each Big Ten team. I define luck as the difference between the actual number of wins and the expected number of wins so far, based on the retroactive spreads derived from the Kenpom adjusted efficiencies of each team. Finally, the table contains the overall strength of schedule advantage/disadvantage relative to the conference average.
Most of the 14 Big Ten teams played two conference games in December, but Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Rutgers each only played one. The Indiana Hosiers are the only school to have won two conference games so far while Michigan State and Iowa are the only teams with two losses.
With so few games played, there is not much to say about the standings. For today, I would like to focus on the metric that I label as "luck," which essentially refers to the ability of a team to win toss-up games.
If a team were to play ten straight games where the point spread was even, the most likely outcome would be a record of 5-5. If that team were to win 7-of-10, one could argue that the team was lucky. Conversely, if the same team went just 3-7 in that stretch, it would be equally reasonable to label that team as unlucky.
If this theoretical series of games were a coin-flipping exercise, the explanation of luck would be completely reasonable (assuming the coin is fair). However, in sports the source of "luck" could also be due to a team being "gritty" with an above average ability to win close games or make winning plays when they count. Luck and grit, in this context, are impossible to distinguish mathematically.
As Table 1 shows, so far Michigan State is the least lucky team in the Big Ten with a rating of -1.15 games. The Spartans were slight favorites in both the home game against Wisconsin and the road game at Nebraska. Michigan State effectively flipped tails in both games.
My analysis of Michigan State's luck is not unique. Kenpom tracks a similar metric that he also labels as luck for all Division 1 teams. Even after the win over Baylor, the Spartans rank No. 357 out of 362 teams in "luck."
Are the Spartans mostly suffering from a lack of luck or a lack of grit? Luck tends to even out, while a lack of grit could be a season-long issue. Prior to the win over Baylor, I believed that the team mostly lacked grit. After the win over Baylor, I wonder if luck played a larger role. The answer to this question will likely determine if Michigan State can challenge for a Big Ten title and approach the level of success that fans expected prior to the season.
Either way, Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten expected win distribution as of Dec. 18.