I am having trouble shaking the feeling of déjà vu about this Friday's game.

Last week, the Michigan State Spartans were preparing to face a top-10 opponent in a night game as a 24-point underdog (Ohio State). My computer and my gut both told me that the game was going to be much closer than the spread suggested. I thought there was a chance that the Spartans were going to show clear progress, even in a loss.

This week, the Michigan State Spartans are once again preparing to face a top-10 opponent in a night game as a 24-point underdog. My computer and my gut both told me that the game is going to be much more competitive than the spread suggests. I think that there is a chance that the Spartans are going to show clear progress, even if they lose.

Odd, right?

As the Spartans head to the Pacific Northwest, fans should consider it a hunting expedition. Michigan State is on the hunt for a more consistent and error-free brand of football. The Green and White certainly took their shots over past two weeks, but they have not quite bagged the game that they have been searching for. In other word, they don't quite have their ducks in a row.

Getting a win against Oregon on the road will not be as easy as duck soup. But there are reasons to believe that this game can be competitive.

Oregon got off to a bumpy start this year with just a 10-point win at home over FCS-opponent Idaho followed by a three-point win at home against Boise State. Last week the Ducks won, but oddly failed to cover at UCLA. Oregon might not quite be up to the standards of their current No. 6 ranking. In fact, my computer only has the Ducks ranked No. 15.

There are also reasons to believe that Michigan State is still a bit underrated. The Spartan defense has been a pleasantly solid surprise so far this year. On offense, Michigan State has been explosive at times, but have had difficultly finishing drives without making a major mistake. The Spartans moved the ball on the Buckeyes in the first half. I see no reason why they cannot move the ball on the Ducks.

However, there are two factors that cut against Michigan State in this matchup. First, the game is being played at 9 p.m. Eastern in the Pacific Northwest. I happen to believe that this type of travel and scheduling will be a slight to moderate advantage for the home team.

Furthermore, the one game this year where Oregon looked like the preseason top-five team that everyone expected was in Week Three when the Ducks demolished their in-state rivals Oregon State in their own stadium. Current Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith is a both a former player and coach in Corvallis, and it is reasonable to expect a bit more sauce from the Ducks when facing their former Beaver adversary on the sidelines.

It is possible that these two factors could counteract the impact of the two teams being a bit closer to each other skill wise than the spread implies. While there should be no shame in taking a loss on the road to a top-10 team, another blowout would not exactly roll off of fans like water off a duck's back.

At some point, if a team continues to make mistakes and plays like a border-line bowl team, maybe that team simply is just a border-line bowl team. I still believe that the Spartans are poised for a breakthrough performance on the big stage, but time is running out to prove it.

The Michigan State Spartans have faced the Oregon Ducks a total of seven times in a series that goes back to 1979. So far the trend is very clear. Michigan State has won all three games played in East Lansing and Oregon has won the four games played out west.

The Duck won three true homes games in 1980, 1988 and 2014. Most recently, Oregon won the epic 7-6 shootout with the Spartans in the 2018 Red Box Bowl in Santa Clara, California.

The largest spread in the series to this point was in 2014 when Connor Cook and company were 14-point underdogs to Marcus Mariota and his flock in Eugene. The Spartans could not hold onto a nine-point second half lead and wound up losing by 19 points. The Spartans have failed to cover the spread in the last five contests with Oregon.

The spread opened at +24.5 for Michigan State, which corresponds to just a 4% chance that the Spartans score the upset win.

I would basically like run the same playbook that I ran last week. While I cannot in good conscience pick a Spartan win, I do believe that this game will be closer than expected. My official prediction from my computer is Oregon 32, Michigan State 16.

With an over/under at 52.5 points, my calculations suggest to take the under and the Spartans to cover.

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Six, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.