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Published Oct 12, 2023
Dr. Green and White Bad Betting Advice, Week Seven: Dark Knights
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Paul Fanson  â€¢  Spartans Illustrated
Staff Writer
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@PaulFanson

The Michigan State football season has not been as bright as hoped. As the fall has progressed, a dark cloud descended upon East Lansing. The former face of the program turned out to be a real joker. The days have grown shorter. The nights have grown longer, and the losses on the football field have accumulated.

After a week of rest, the Spartans will emerge from the bat cave and will make a trip towards Gotham to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Rumors are circling that a new hero may be emerging in East Lansing to potentially lead the Spartan this weekend. It is possible, if not likely, that redshirt freshman quarterback Katin Houser will start or at least see significant time against Rutgers.

Will this potential change actually make a dent in any of the Spartans' long list of issues? Can Houser be the white knight who will provide a spark? Under his leadership, can the offense reduce the penalties and turnovers that have been the bane of Michigan State's existence over the past few weeks? Spartan fans are keenly interested in the answer to these riddles. It feels like a coin-flip as to whether this potential experiment will lead to success or failure.

In any event, the stakes this weekend remain as high as ever. For the third time in the past three games, the fate of the season may be on the line. It would be a crime for the Spartans to miss out on a bowl two years in a row. But with only two wins so far, and likely only four winnable games left on the schedule, that margin of error has shrunk to zero.

A loss this weekend would plunge the prospects of a winning season into a hole as deep and as dark as Arkham prison. It would take a truly heroic performance for the rest of the season to emerge.

But if Michigan State can find a way to win this game, it would provide that glimmer of hope that Spartan fans have been waiting on for weeks. Hope can be a dangerous thing. If nothing else, it would make next week a whole lot more interesting.

Michigan State Prediction

Michigan State and Rutgers have faced off 14 times in history, with the Spartans holding a 10-4 advantage in overall record. The two schools met five times between 1988 and 2004 with the Scarlet Knights winning three of those five games.

Since Rutgers joined the Big Ten in 2014, Michigan State is 8-1, with the only loss coming in Mel Tucker's first game as head coach in 2020 where the Spartans turned the ball over seven times at home.

In the 11 games between the two teams going back to 2003, Michigan State has been favored in all 11 games. That streak has come to an end in 2023 as Rutgers opened as a six-point favorite. The line appears to be moving in a green direction and at press is sitting with Michigan State +5 and with an over/under of 39.5 points.

Michigan State is 5-6 against the spread in the last 11 games against Rutgers. The teams have hit the under on points in three of the last 10 games.

Based on the opening spread, there is a 33% chance that Michigan State can rebound with a victory following the bye week. The FPI prediction is for the Spartans to fall short, but to (barely) cover the current five-point spread.

My computer, however, is not as optimistic. It has Rutgers beating Michigan State by a score of 28-16, which would also hit the "over" on points.

As much as I would like to be the optimist here, I am afraid that this prediction might be dead on. My calculations suggest that Rutgers is better than most people believe.

Furthermore, I am skeptical that a change at the quarterback position will actually make things better. In fact, I think that it could make things worse. While a seven-turnover repeat of the game in 2020 is unlikely, the Spartans need to prove that they can avoid mistakes before I will believe it.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Seven, including my projected scores, the opening point spread and the computers' projected point differentials.

Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not from either national poll.

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MichiganState
FOOTBALL
Scores / Schedule
footballfootball
10 - 2
Overall Record
2 - 0
Conference Record
Finished
Michigan St.
86
Arrow
Michigan St.
Florida Atlantic
69
Florida Atlantic
Michigan St.
77
Arrow
Michigan St.
Oakland
58
Oakland
Michigan St.
89
Arrow
Michigan St.
Nebraska
52
Nebraska
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