Dr. Green and White Analysis: Group of Five Breakdown
As the start of the college football season looms, we are continuing our simulation-based preview of the 2023 season. Several weeks ago, we began this journey by exploring the accuracy of the preseason rankings. We then reviewed the accuracy of the 2022 predictions, looked closely at what to expect from Michigan State this year, and toured the Big Ten and the rest of the Power Five conferences.
Today, it is time to complete the regular season picture with a quick look at the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision: the so-called Group of Five conferences. Let's kick things off with a quick look at the American Athletic Conference (AAC).
AAC Odds and Predictions
This year marks some major changes in the AAC as Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida have departed for the Big 12, while Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice and Alabama Birmingham have arrived from Conference USA.
While the total membership now stands at 14 total teams, the AAC is continuing to use the same "division-less" model that most of the other conferences have now adopted. As a result, the top-two teams at the end of the regular with meet in the AAC Championship game.
Similar to the analysis that I performed on the Power Five conferences, Table 1 gives the results of a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season with a focus on the AAC members.
The table gives the consensus preseason ranking of each team, the expected number of wins, final record in two difference scenarios, strengths of schedule and the odds for various season outcomes (like "winning the division title," which in this case means participating in the league championship game).
The raw odds and the both the "most likely" scenario (where the projected favorites win all games) and the "disruptive" scenario (where a historically reasonable number of road upsets occur) all come to the same conclusion: No. 33 Tulane will narrowly defeat No. 39 Texas San Antonio to repeat as AAC Champions.
In the grander scheme, Tulane may have a shot to go undefeated if the Green Wave can upset Ole Miss at home in Week Two. The only other games on the schedule where Tulane is projected as less than a 10-point favorite are a road game at No. 67 Memphis (+6) and a home game against Texas San Antonio (+6) to close the regular season. Could the Green Wave crash the College Football Playoff party?
Texas San Antonio may have the opportunity to upstage Tulane if the Roadrunners can upset No. 14 Tennessee (-14) on the road in Week Four, but that is a much more of a long shot.
That said, No. 55 Southern Methodist and No. 67 Memphis are both predicted to also finish at 7-1 in conference play in a tie for second place with Texas San Antonio. Both teams have easier conference schedules than either Tulane or Texas San Antonio.
Memphis hosts both Tulane and Southern Methodist, while Southern Methodist avoids Tulane all together. Neither Memphis nor Southern Methodist face Texas San Antonio in the regular season. At the end of the day, the two teams in the top-four that can avoid an upset are the most likely candidates to square off in the conference championship game.
Mountain West Odds and Predictions
The membership of the Mountain West Conference has been stable for over a decade, but the conference also decided to scrap divisions for the 2023 season. As a result, the Mountain West Championship game will feature the top-two teams overall at the end of the regular season. Table 2 below shows the results of my simulation and related calculations for the Mountain West teams.
The story here is similar to that in the AAC. The two highest-ranked teams in the conference (No. 46 Boise State and No. 60 Air Force) have the best odds to meet in the conference title game. My computer gives Boise State just under a 50% chance to reach the title game, while Air Force has a 38% chance.
Both full season scenarios reach the same conclusion, so my formal prediction is for Boise State to defeat Air Force to win the Mountain West Championship. Those two teams will also square off in the final game of the regular season, which will be a home game for Boise State (-7).
Air Force owns one of the easiest schedules in the nation (No. 129 of 133) and the Falcons could very well be undefeated heading into the game at Boise State. The Broncos have a tougher schedule that features a game at Washington (-17) to open the season and a tricky road game at Fresno State (+1.5) that my disruptive simulation predicts will be a loss.
Beyond those two teams, there are three additional teams that are all projected to finish with a 6-2 conference record in my disruptive simulation, and all three could easily sneak into the top two in the final standings. No. 66 Fresno State has a 33% chance to make the title game. No. 71 San Diego State has a 28% chance and No. 85 Wyoming has a 19% chance. I will also note that No. 96 San Jose State has a 13% chance.
Of those teams, Fresno State has a schedule that is almost as easy as the schedule for Air Force. Those two teams do not plan each other and Fresno State hosts Boise State. If the Bulldogs can avoid an upset at Wyoming (+1), they could sneak into the top-two.
I am also intrigued by San Jose State. The Spartans have the fourth-toughest conference schedule, but they draw Air Force (-6), Fresno State (-4.5) and San Diego State (-3) all at home. San Jose State will be an underdog in all three of those games, but if the Spartans can protect their home turf, they could be the surprise team of the conference.
Sun Belt Odds and Predictions
Unlike the Mountain West and AAC, the Sun Belt Conference will continue to use the East and West Divisions for the 2023 season. Table 3 gives the results of my simulation and related calculations for the Sun Belt.
Based on preseason rankings, the race in the Sun Belt East looks very competitive with four teams ranked between No. 76 and No. 82. All four teams have between a 13% and a 25% chance to win the division.
No. 76 Marshall, in principle, is the strongest team of the four, but the Thundering Herd have one of the toughest conference schedules, which translates into only the third-best odds (19%) to win the division. Marshall projects to be an underdog on the road at No. 78 Coastal Carolina (-3), at No. 79 Appalachian State (-3) and at No. 58 South Alabama (-8).
As a result, my computer suggests that No. 79 Appalachian State and No. 78 Coastal Carolina will finish in a tie for the East Division title, with Appalachian State winning the head-to-head tie breaker.
In the Sun Belt West Division, it projects to be a two-team race between No. 58 South Alabama (38% odds) and No. 56 Troy (32%). Both teams have easy conference schedules, but Troy has the easiest one in the conference. Critically, Troy draws both South Alabama and Louisiana at home.
As a result, my computer predicts that Troy will defeat Appalachian State to claim the Sun Belt crown, despite the fact the neither team is projected to be the most talented team in their respective divisions.
MAC Odds and Predictions
Similar to the Sun Belt, the Mid-American Conference enjoys stable membership and two geographically-based divisions. Table 4 gives the results of my simulation and related calculations for the MAC.
In this case, the MAC race looks fairly straightforward. There are a total of three teams ranked in the top-100 in the preseason. Those three teams all have the three-easiest conference schedules, and all three have over a 30% chance to win their respective division.
In the MAC West, No. 68 Toledo has just below a 50% chance to make the MAC Championship game and is the projected division winner by four whole games in both scenarios. That seems like a safe bet, if such a thing exists in the MAC.
In the East, No. 86 Ohio has a 42% chance to win the division over No. 92 Miami of Ohio (31% chance). The key here is that Ohio gets to host Miami this year, which gives Bobcats a distinct advantage.
My disruptive scenario does suggest that Ohio will drop a pair of road games at Northern Illinois (+2.5) and at Buffalo (+2). But unless Miami gets an upset over Toledo (-2.5), it will be difficult for the Red Hawks to win the East.
As a result, my computer likes Toledo to beat Ohio to win the MAC Championship.
C-USA Odds and Predictions
Table 5 gives the results of my simulation and related calculations for Conference USA. The conference lost six members to the AAC (Texas San Antonio, North Texas, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Rice and UAB) and subsequently picked up Liberty and New Mexico State from the ranks of the Independents, and Jacksonville State and Sam Houston from the FCS. Conference USA will also be "division-less" in 2023.
The simulation and both scenarios all point to the same result in Conference USA. No. 73 Western Kentucky has the best odds of any team in the FBS to make a conference championship game at 64%. No. 95 Liberty has the best odds to join the Hilltoppers at 41%. If this comes to pass, Western Kentucky would be favored to beat Liberty to claim the Conference USA title.
It is possible that another team could rise up to claim one of the spots in the championship game, but this analysis does not identify any clear candidates. No. 102 Middle Tennessee has the next best odds (30%), but the Blue Raiders must travel to both Liberty (-6) and Western Kentucky (-12) this year. No other team projects to have better than a .500 record in conference play.
New Year's Six Projection
The analysis above provides an overview of the action in each of the Group of Five conferences. But the result that is most relevant to the broader college football audience is which of the Group of Five Champion will claim a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl. My simulation also tabulates these odds, which are shown below in Table 6.
These odds track with the preseason ranking, but teams with particularly easy strengths of schedule (such as Toledo and Air Force) tend to get an odds boost. Overall, the two favorites in the American Athletic Conference (Tulane and Texas San Antonio) have the best chance to reach the New Year's Six.
That said, one factor to keep an eye on is the opportunities for Group of Five teams to score a notable upset over a Power Five or other highly ranked team. Table 6 also highlights the highest ranked team each of the Group of Five candidates will face in non-conference play.
Based on the projected spreads, it is easy to imagine outcomes such as Tulane beating Ole Miss in Week Two, Toledo winning at Illinois in Week One or Fresno State upsetting Purdue in Week One. Any of these upsets would move the winning team to the top of the Group of Five leaderboard.
Over the past few weeks, we have fully explored the 2023 college football regular season. The next step is to put the pieces together to make some predictions about the post-season, including the New Year's Six bowl games and the College Football Playoff. Stay tuned.