The Michigan State Spartans' 40-0 win this weekend over Prairie View A&M was a pretty standard blowout win against an overmatched FCS opponent. But the game did provide on least one memory that will likely go down as one of the iconic plays of the 2024 season.
In the final seconds of the first half, Spartan cornerback Charles Brantley intercepted a pass in the end zone and proceeded to bob and weave his way across the entire field, running well over 100 yards in total (although the play will officially go down as 100 yards) to score a touchdown for the Green and White.
After watching this play, I turned to my colleagues in the press box and said, "That was fun." A few hours later while sitting in the Spartan Stadium Media Center, head coach Jonathan Smith described the same play by saying, "That was exciting and fun."
It took me several more hours before the gravity of these two statements hit me. After two dark and painful seasons, Michigan State football is fun again.
Michigan State is 3-0 for the first time since 2021 and for only the fifth time since 2008. None of those wins were against world-beating opponents, but the program under Smith suddenly has new life and new energy.
One could feel that energy just walking around campus and enjoying the beautiful early fall East Lansing weather. Inside the stadium, the students were in their seats early and their numbers stayed strong into the second half despite the lopsided score.
Yes, the house that was built by Biggie and Duffy and the house that was renovated by George and Mark is fun again. It is no wonder that fans suddenly feel like kids at a carnival.
Next week the schedule starts to get much tougher, starting with a road game at Boston College. Any college football season is roller coaster ride, full of ups and downs. There is a good chance that the bottom is going to drop out for a while, leaving fans clinging to the sides.
But progress is being made. The program is headed in the right direction, even if the path is not always straight. For now, let's enjoy the ride.
Week Three Betting Results
Now it's time to review the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.
Sixteen teams landed in the overachiever category this week, including Tennessee, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Indiana, Kansas State and Houston. Meanwhile only three favored teams failed to cover by more than 14 points, including one upset loser in Mississippi State. The two underachievers that still won are Georgia and Michigan.
Including Mississippi State, only seven total teams were upset in Week Three. This value is more than one standard deviation below the expected value of 11 upsets. But both Week One and Week Two had an unusually large number of upsets, so the relative calmness of Week Three is an example of regression to the mean.
Table 1 below summarizes those seven upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.
The top four upsets on the board all involve Group of Five teams taking out Power Four schools, as Toledo beat Mississippi State, Georgia State upset Vanderbilt, UNLV outlasted Kansas, and Memphis added to Florida State free fall of a start to the season.
The other three upsets were Washington State over Washington in the Apple Cup, Pittsburgh over West Virginia in the "Backyard Brawl," and Central Florida over Texas Christian in a matchup that many casual college football fans likely don't realize is a Big 12 conference game.
My computer picked the wrong week to be aggressive in upset picks, as it went just 2-7 (22%) bringing the year-to-date performance down to 8-9 (47%). The FPI's more conservative approach resulted in a 2-1 record (67%) and a 7-5 (58%) year-to-date tally.
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.
In contrast to the upset picks, my computer's aggressive approach to picks against the spread (ATS) was more successful. My computer was 7-6 (54%) in suggested bets and 30-22 (58%) overall ATS. This brings the year-to-date performance to 13-9 (59%) and 77-61 (56%).
My analysis of ESPN's FPI data also performed well in Week Three. The suggested picks went 3-1 (75%), while the FPI's total picks were just 27-25 (52%). This brings the year-to-date tallies to 13-9 (59%) and 70-68 (51%).
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Three.
For the second week in a row, my larger set of point-total (over/under) bets had a very strong week, going 15-6 (71%), bringing the year-to-date total to 45-31 (59%). However, my "higher confidence" lock picks went just 1-2 (33%) and continue to struggle overall with a record of 5-11 (31%).
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week Three, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
Note that all the rankings listed below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.
Trying to make sense of the college football landscape in September is like looking into a fun house mirror. Depending on the week and the angle, teams look drastically different. The only constant is that the image is always moving.
Several Big Ten teams had a strong Week Three. Oregon finally started to look like the preseason top-10 team that everyone was expecting with a win over rival Oregon State. Michigan State, Nebraska and Northwestern all easily handled FCS opponents. Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota all won and covered versus Group of Five teams.
Maryland managed a double-digit win at Virginia, while Indiana went into the Rose Bowl and hammered UCLA.
If we shift the angle on the fun house mirror to look at the schools that did not fare as well, we see that Iowa and Michigan both failed to cover against Sun Belt opponents Troy and Arkansas State, respectively. But both the Wolverines and Hawkeyes still look better than Washington, Purdue and Wisconsin. The latter two teams were blown out at home by Norte Dame and Alabama, respectively.
It is still too early in the 2024 season to get an undistorted image of the Big Ten race, but Table 3 above shows some interesting movement. Ohio State (40%) and USC (33.5%) continue to have the best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game. Preseason contenders Oregon (23%) and Penn State (19%) also remain in the top-five.
But two surprising schools have moved up into the top-six this week. Nebraska (20%) currently has the third-best odds to win the Big Ten, in large part thanks to the Huskers' ascension to No. 12 in my current power rankings.
Similarly, despite a last-second loss to North Carolina in Week One, the Minnesota Golden Gophers (15%) have shot up in my rankings to No. 18, thanks to posting back-to-back shutouts over Rhode Island and Nevada.
We will find out if the Gophers are for real over the next three weeks, as they face Iowa, Michigan and USC. As for Nebraska, the Cornhuskers' schedule is more back-loaded. Nebraska has a solid shot to be 7-0 in late October before heading to Columbus to face the Buckeyes.
Then there are the Michigan Wolverines. If there are any fans of that program reading this, I recommend holding on tight and possibly closing your eyes. The Maize and Blue have failed to cover three weeks in a row and have drifted down my power rankings to No. 27, one spot below Maryland. Shifts in the relative strengths of certain conference opponents have also pushed Michigan's conference schedule to the second-most difficult, behind only UCLA.
This combination of factors results in an updated expected win total for Michigan of just 6.29 games and odds to make a bowl game at a shocking 65%. My computer only projects the Wolverines to be favored in two more games this season: the home games against Michigan State (+5.5) and Northwestern (+11).
While it seems likely that the Wolverines will rebound before the end of the season, the numbers do not currently paint a pretty picture. Even if Michigan can turn things around, the rest of the season in Ann Arbor looks like it could be more of a thrill ride than anyone expected.
Remaining Schedule for Michigan State
Michigan State's shutout win over Prairie View A&M, coupled with surprisingly strong performances by the Spartans' previous two opponents (Maryland and FAU, with the Owls beating rival Florida International) resulted in a positive bump in the metrics.
Michigan State rose up to No. 40 in my current power rankings with a new expected win total of 7.05 and an 80% chance to make a bowl game. That win total and those bowl odds are currently the highest of all the state-of-Michigan-based Big Ten school.
I now give the Spartans a 6% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game and a 2% chance to win the conference. Michigan State's current playoff odds are 12%, while the odds of a national title are 1-in-625 (0.16%).
Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining nine games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2.
As my computer's opinion of the Spartans has improved, so have the projected odds for the rest of the season. The next three games at No. 24 Boston College (-7), versus No. 5 Ohio State (-9.5) and at No. 17 Oregon (-9.5) currently project as the three toughest games left on the schedule.
But none of those games feel completely out of reach anymore. The math suggests that there is about a one-in-three chance that Michigan State picks up at least one upset win in that span.
The back half of the schedule also looks increasingly more manageable. The Spartans now project to be healthy favorites over No. 85 Purdue (+11) and No. 58 Rutgers (+6.5) to close out the season and a narrow favorite over No. 33 Indiana (+1.5).
The remaining three contests against No. 19 Iowa (-3.5), at No. 27 Michigan (-5) and at No. 35 Illinois (-3) will be tough, but all three of those games appear to be winnable as we sit here in mid-September.
Even if the Spartans drop the next three games and fall to 3-3, the expected number of wins in the final six games is 3.2. A bowl game bid in that scenario would still be very much in play.
National Overview
In the final ride before closing time, let's take a quick spin around the country and see which teams had fun this weekend and which ones didn't. Table 5 below is my updated College Football Playoff leaderboard following Week Three.
The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.
My current college football playoff leaderboard is dominated by the SEC. That conference currently boasts four teams in the top-five and six teams in the top-10. Alabama has risen to the top of my current power rankings, thanks in large part to a blowout win in Madison.
No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Mississippi and No. 6 Tennessee all crushed their opponents like a toddler crushes a bag of cotton candy. No. 8 Missouri won, but failed to cover against No. 24 Boston College. Then there is No. 4 Georgia. After two very strong weeks to start the season, the Bulldogs barely escaped Lexington, Kentucky with a win this weekend. This result left my algorithm feeling a bit queasy about Georgia's future prospects.
In Big 12 action, No. 11 Kansas State scored a big win over Arizona and have ascended to the top of my Big 12 odds table with a 39.5% chance to make the Big 12 Championship Game. No. 13 Utah (32%), No. 14 Iowa State (29%) and No. 22 Oklahoma State (20%) are all still undefeated and solidly in contention, but the biggest mover this week is No. 20 Central Florida (35%). The Knights edged TCU on the road and now own the second-best odds to play in the conference title game.
In the ACC, No. 10 Miami hammered Ball State and continues to have the best odds (46%) to make the ACC Championship Game. No. 15 Louisville (42%) did not play, but the Cardinals continue to hold the second-best odds. Despite holding records of just 2-1, No. 24 Boston College (34%) and No. 31 Virginia Tech (16%) are next in line. Both teams covered this week with Boston College narrowing falling at Missouri and Virginia Tech surviving a test at Old Dominion.
Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.
The Rebels of UNLV solidified their claim in first place (at 22.5%) on the Group of Five leaderboard with a win at Kansas. However, No. 29 Memphis (17%) shot up to the No. 2 spot thanks to the Tigers' win at Florida State.
The remaining teams currently in the top-five (No. 32 Boise State, No. 67 Northern Illinois and No. 46 Army) all were on a bye this week, but continue to be teams to watch. Northern Illinois was certainly helped by the fact that Notre Dame suddenly looked competent.
The other big mover is No. 80 Toledo (2.3%), which jumped the line up to No. 10 in the Group of Five leaderboard thanks to the big upset win at Mississippi State. If either MAC team can survive the often chaotic conference schedule with one loss or fewer, the strong non-conference performance of the league will look very nice on a potential playoff resume.
Against all odds, we have escaped this hall or mirrors and made it to the end for today. Hopefully, everyone had fun and no one lost their lunch. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.
