It wouldn’t be Michigan State men's basketball unless things got a little uncomfortable, especially this year.
As Saturday’s slate saw five bid-stealers enter the tournament, Michigan State fans rightly became a little sweaty heading into Selection Sunday as most bracketologists slid the Spartans to one of the last two teams into the field.
However, the committee, who seemingly filled out most of their bracket by Thursday, had the Spartans as the top No. 9 seed in the field, nowhere close to the edge, despite losing five of their last seven and sputtering down the stretch.
Showing up on our TVs in the last region to be announced, the Spartans now have a tough matchup with No. 8-seeded Mississippi State. If the Spartans beat the Bulldogs, their prize is to face the No. 1-seeded North Carolina Tarheels.
What does game one look like? How are we feeling about the Spartans after this weekend? Is there a path to the Sweet 16 and beyond or is this team one and done?
Carter Elliott and David Klein take you through all of their thoughts on the matchups, what Michigan State needs to do to win the weekend and their expectations for the last push in what has been a bit of a torturous season.
DK: Cart, I wanted to start with your thoughts on the two games MSU played in Minneapolis this past weekend. A relatively complete game against a mediocre Minnesota team and then a wire-to-wire game for the second time against Purdue, where MSU simply couldn’t hit enough shots to get over the hump. What encouraged you about this team this weekend and what are your concerns heading into the tourney?
Carter: I was very impressed with the Spartans' ability to get stops in the game versus Minnesota. In a game that was close into the second half, the Spartans did an incredible job of tightening the screws on the Gophers when it mattered the most.
The bigs were collectively serviceable and walled up well in the interior and the game plan from the staff had the guards actively digging down on the post while closing out on shooters hard (a plan to adapt to this upcoming game). In the Purdue game, I wasn’t devastated by the loss. but it was frustrating to have one of the best teams in the country in an uncomfortable spot and fail to make the necessary perimeter shots to put them away. Moral victories are never a thing that a team like Michigan State should be proud of, but if the guards were able to shoot better in that game they did enough defensively to win against one of the national favorites.
DK: I’ve started diving into my homework on Mississippi State. They have an electric freshman guard in Josh Hubbard (17.1 PPG on 38.7/35.8/85.3 splits), a physical center in 6’11” 245lb Tolu Smith (15.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG), and then mostly a complementary roster behind them.
They don’t shoot the three particularly well (32.5% on the season 247th in the country), they are a touch turnover prone (18.7% of possessions end in a turnover, 290th in the country), but they are a top 25 ORB team (35.4% of misses end in an ORB, 21st in the country) and the defense is top 20 in the country [all stats per Kenpom]. They beat Tennessee twice and Auburn once, also common opponents Northwestern and Rutgers on a neutral.
How do you see this game playing out and what concerns you most about this Mississippi State team?
Carter: This Mississippi State team is one that is similarly confusing to me as Michigan State. While they have some great wins, including two wins over Tennessee and one over Auburn, they have had an up and down season including a late season sputter as they lost four straight to end the regular season.
Overall, I think the Bulldogs are a very solid and tough team, and, like Michigan State, rely on the defensive end to keep them in games. Josh Hubbard is electric but he is very boom or bust (Carsen Edwards-esque) and while Tolu Smith is a monster in the paint, he’s an awful FT shooter (58% on the season), so MSU needs to make him earn his points.
Outside of those two, the other pieces are complementary but not a consistent threat to score. Hubbard getting hot and Tolu Smith having a massive game together is the concern but, if only one plays up to their potential, I am a lot less worried because even against this Spartan team, they may not have enough to hang around.