Purdue (19-7, 11-4) comes into East Lansing to play MSU (20-5, 11-3) on Tuesday at 7:00pm on Peacock
It will be a critical game and must-win situation for the Spartans as Matt Painter and the Purdue Boilermakers invade East Lansing to take on the Spartans.
Conference standings and remaining schedule (top four teams receive Big Ten Tournament double bye)
Michigan, 12-2
MSU, @Nebraska, Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland, @ MSU
Michigan State, 11-3
Purdue, @Michigan, @ Maryland, Wisconsin, @ Iowa, Michigan
Purdue, 11-4
@MSU, @Indiana, UCLA, Rutgers, @Illinois
Wisconsin, 10-4
Illinois, Oregon, Washington, @MSU, @Minnesota, Penn State
Maryland, 10-5
USC, MSU, @Penn State, @Michigan, Northwestern
UCLA, 10-5
Minnesota, Ohio State, @Purdue, @Northwestern, USC
The losses to USC and Indiana have damaged the Spartan's changes. However, if they take care of business at home vs. Purdue and steal a game vs the Wolverines on the road, they are right back in it.
Head Coach Matt Painter
In the Big Ten, Matt Painter has five regular season championships and two Big Ten Tournament titles. He has 15 NCAA tournament berths, seven Sweet 16 appearances, and one appearance in the National Championship game.
They had an outstanding 2023-24 season, going 34-5 and winning five NCAA Tournament games by a +19.8 point differential before running into the UCONN juggernaut and losing 75-60.
Painter has a 491–215 (.695) career record with 237 conference wins.
Meet the Boilermakers
Trey Kaufman-Renn is a 6'9" 230, pound Junior forward who played at Silver Creek High School, where he won a pair of Indiana Class 3A state titles and was ranked No. 32 nationally by Rivals and No. 39 by ESPN. He was a runner-up to his teammate Caleb Furst in the 2021 voting for Mr. Basketball.
As a sophomore last season, he averaged 6.4 points and 4.0 rebounds and started 39 games. This season, he averages 19.4 points (60.9 FG%) and 6.3 rebounds per game. He shoots 63.9% from the free-throw line, has 65 assists to 60 turnovers ratio, and adds 19 steals and seven blocks for the year.
Braden Smith is a 6'0", 170-pound junior point guard and one of the best in the country. He earned first-team All-Big Ten and Honorable Mention All-American a year ago. Smith was named a Finalist for the Cousy Award and one of five players in NCAA history to have had at least 800 points, 440 assists, and 370 rebounds through the end of their sophomore season, a list that includes Ja Morant and Magic Johnson. He was the 13th recipient of Indiana's Mr. Basketball to play at Purdue.
A year ago, he averaged 12.0 points, 7.5 assists, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. This year, he averages 16 points per game (44.5 FG%) and 4.7 rebounds. He shoots 38.6% from the three-point line and 84.3% from the free-throw line. He has an excellent 230 assists to 72 turnovers ratio, and adds 63 steals on the year.
Fletcher Loyer is a 6'5", 180-pound guard who, in high school, was named Indiana's Gatorade Player of the Year following his senior season. Loyer had an outstanding senior season for Homestead High School, setting the school's single-season scoring record while making 73 three-pointers and having a school-record 179 free throws. Brother Foster was a Michigan Mr. Basketball selection and played three years at Michigan State.
Last season, he averaged 10.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game, and he shot 44.4% from 3-point land and 86.1% from the free throw line. This season, Loyer averages 13.9 points per game (46.8%) and 2.2 rebounds. He shoots 45.3% from three-point land and 85.4% from the free-throw line and has 39 assists to 35 turnover ratio.
C.J. Cox is a 6'3", 200-pound freshman guard with few major offers who chose Purdue over the Ivy League. Cox led the Middlesex Magic to the AAU Under Armour Championship (U17). This year, he averages 6.6 (48.7 FG%) points and 2.8 rebounds. He shoots 42.4% from 3-point land on 66 attempts and 78.6% from the free-throw line. He has a 17 assists to 15 turnover ratio and 18 steals on the year.
Caleb Furst is a 6'10" 235 pound senior forward. In high school, he was named 2021 Indiana Mr. Basketball, was a MaxPreps Honorable Mention All-America, was ranked No.38 by Rivals, and helped Team USA to the gold medal at the FIBA U19 World Cup in Latvia. As a sophomore for Purdue, he appeared in all 35 games with 21 starts and averaged 5.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 0.7 assists per game while shooting 51.3 percent from the field.
As a junior, he averaged 2.2 points and 2.4 rebounds. This season for Purdue, he averages 5.1 points (58.3 FG%) and 3.5 rebounds per game and has 21 steals but has a poor 10 assists to 24 turnover ratio.
Myles Colvin is a 6'5", 205-pound sophomore from Indianapolis, Indiana. In high school, he was the No. 51-ranked recruit by Rivals and competed for Team USA in the FIBA U19 World Championships in Latvia. He also participated in the Rocket Mortgage High School Slam Dunk Competition at the Final Four in Houston and finished second. His father, Rosevelt, played football at Purdue from 1995 to 1998, being named All-Big Ten his final two years.
He averaged 3.3 points per game as a freshman. This year for Purdue, he averages 5.1 points (37.8 FG%) and 2.6 rebounds. He's 31% from 3-point land and 60% from the free-throw line. With a 12 assists to 17 turnovers ratio and has 18 steals for the year.
Camden Heide is a 6'7", 205-pound sophomore forward from Minnesota. Heide led Wayzata High School to the 2021 Minnesota State Championship as a four-star recruit before transferring to Wasatch Academy in Utah. As a freshman for Purdue, he played in all 39 games and averaged 3.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 0.4 assists per game, shooting 57.6 percent from the field and 45.0 percent (18-of-40) from 3-point range.
This year for Purdue, Heide averages 3.4 points (42.7 FG %) and 3.4 rebounds per game. He shoots 29.8% from 3-point land and 84.8% from the free-throw line. He has a 14 assist to seven turnovers ratio with 11 steals and six blocks.
Gicarri Harris is a 6'3", 200-pound freshman guard from Atlanta, Georgia, and a Max Preps All-American in high school. He led Grayson High School to its first state championship and was ranked the 10th-best combo guard in the country. Father Glenn was the 1994 National Player of the Year at Purdue and the No. 1 NBA Draft pick of the Milwaukee Bucks. Brother Gelen was a standout football player at Purdue, graduating in 2017.
Harris was also a high school teammate of Georgia signee Jacob Wilkins, the son of NBA legend Dominique Wilkins. This year for Purdue, he is averaging 3.7 points (39.2 FG%) and 1.6 rebounds. He shoots 28% from 3-point land and 90.9% from the free-throw line. He has a 27 assists to eight turnovers ratio.
Raleigh Burgess is a 6'11", 240-pound freshman forward and rated the No.75 prospect by Rivals and the No.4 overall prospect in Ohio, where he averaged 15.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, and 1.5 assists for Sycamore High School. This year for Purdue, he averages 2.4 points (52.4 FG%) and 1.5 rebounds. He shoots 41.2% from the free-throw line and 40% from 3-point land.
Will Berg is a 7'2", 260-pound sophomore center from Sweden. This year for Purdue, he averages 2.1 points per game (80 FG%) and 1.8 rebounds. He shoots 46.2% from the free-throw line.
Purdue team stats (Purdue - opponent)
- Points per game: 78.7 - 69.8
- FG percentage: .494 - .445
- FG per game: 27.9 - 25.1
- 3PT percentage: .377 - .308
- 3PT per game: 8.0 - 7.5
- FT percentage: .726 - .722
- FT per game: 15.0 - 12.1
- Rebounds per game: 33.0 - 31.2
- Assists per game: 16.6 - 14.0
- Turnovers per game: 10.5 - 12.7
- Points off turnovers: 15.8 – 11.4
- Steals per game: 7.0 – 6.1
- Blocks per game: 1.8 – 3.2
Looking at Purdue in key Big Ten games
In two losses by Purdue:
Wisconsin (L, 94-84): Minus three FGs, minus two 3-pointers. Wisconsin protected the ball with 18 assists and just three turnovers.
Michigan (L, 75-73): Minus 12 free throws. Purdue just nine assists to 11 turnovers.
In three wins by Purdue:
USC (W, 90-72): Purdue +7 FGs, +2 3-pointers, Smith with 13 assists. USC with a 10 assists to ten turnovers ratio.
Oregon (W, 66-58): +1 FG, minus five 3-pointers, +10 free throws. Oregon had a ratio of 12 assists to 16 turnovers.
Washington (W, 69-58): +5 FGs, minus six 3-pointers, +7 free throws. UW with a 13 assists to 17 turnovers ratio.
Conclusion
Sometimes, MSU is hard to figure out.
I expected them to win at home vs. Indiana and lose on the road to an angry Illinois team, but it is clearly about matchups this time of year.
Illinois has talent, but they did not present the type of defense that bothers MSU, namely the zone. Purdue can show that type of defense and is very good at lowering the opposition's assist-to-turnover ratio. When Purdue is on, Smith gets numerous assists, and as a team, they get to the free-throw line frequently and disrupt the play-making of the other team, limit assists, and force turnovers.
The danger for MSU is that it is coming off an emotional win and Tom Izzo's Big Ten record-clinching win. However, this is a must-win situation if MSU wants to continue in the Big Ten race and the game is at home. I expect a tight game, but I give MSU a slight advantage.
MSU 70, Purdue 68
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