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EAST LANSING - While it’s obvious that most of the attention nationally will be squarely placed on the shoulders of the matchup between Michigan State’s Cassius Winston and LSU’s Tremont Waters, it’s fair to say that both teams’ point guards will be more focused with how their teammates perform during the Spartans vs. Tigers Sweet 16 matchup Friday night.
And rightly so.
While both players are their respective team’s leading scorers and assist men, they know neither one of them can get the job done alone.
Still, their numbers are noteworthy at this point in the NCAA Tournament.
Winston, a junior, averages 18.9 points and 7.5 assists per game, while Waters, a sophomore, leads the way for his team with 15 points and 5.6 assists per contest.
But when No. 2 MSU (30-6) and LSU (28-6) meet for the just the second time in history in the East Region at 7:09 p.m. (CBS) at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C., the outcome will be determined by more than just the teams’ guard play.
What happens down low and under the basket will say just as much about each school’s chance to move on and play the winner of No. 1 seed Duke vs. Virginia Tech on Sunday as anything.
The Spartans will be counting on three forwards - redshirt senior Kenny Goins, junior Nick Ward and sophomore Xavier Tillman, while the Tigers will be looking for strong performances from a pair of big men in Kavell Bigby-Williams and freshman and leading rebounder Naz Reid.
“We’ve just got to be physical,’’ Tillman said of MSU challenges against the duo. “From Cash (Winston) to me. Everybody’s got to be physical. They’ve got some high flyers and we can’t let them get on the boards.’’
MSU, which enters the game with a nearly a plus-10 rebounding margin to LSU’s plus-4.8, will try to exploit the Tigers’ three-guard, two-forward attack with strong inside play. Michigan State will try to do it against an LSU team that is forcing nearly 15 turnovers a contest, and ranks No. 9 in the country in steals.
The Spartans average 13 turnovers a game. Michigan State turned the ball over 22 times in its second round win over Big Ten foe Minnesota, and must value every possession in order to have a chance to win and move on.
“If we do that again, we’ll probably lose,’’ senior shooting guard and captain Matt McQuaid said. “If you get 20-plus turnovers in the tournament, that’s just unacceptable. So we definitely have to make sure we’re not turning the ball over like that.’’
Michigan State hopes to continue to play productively down low, but will need to do it against an LSU team that is strong in the blocked shot department.
Tillman’s 9.8 points and 7.2 rebounds leads the way, while Goins is the team’s top rebounder at 8.9 a contest. Goins adds 8.1 points a game and has emerged in the last six weeks of the season as a terrific 3-point shooting threat. Goins is likely to get some open looks against LSU, with the way LSU sells out for steals and blocked shots at other areas of the floor.
THE INTERIOR BATTLE
Nick Ward could be MSU’s X-factor in the post. He has been steadily playing himself back into game shape after returning to action in the Big Ten Tournament after missing five games with a fracture in his shooting hand. Ward enters Friday night averaging 13.7 and 6.2 rebounds a game. The Minnesota game marked the first time since his return that he played more than 10 minutes in a game. He played 20. He wasn’t great, but he had some good moments, and there is hope he can take it up another notch for this game.
Michigan State has been impressed with the vertical athleticism and rim-rattling power of LSU’s interior players. LSU interim coach Tony Benford has been impressed with MSU’s interior talent.
“(They are) physical, defensive linemen,” Benford said. “They're pretty physical. You start with Tillman, he's playing really well. He does a great job getting great position down there. Then they bring in Nick (Ward). Nick has had an injury, but he's really physical and strong. Those two guys there, they get position on you and it's over.”
Benford recognizes that Tillman, and especially Ward when healthy, do an uncommonly good job of sprinting the court for fastbreak lay-up opportunities, and then post deep and hard early in each possession, making themselves available for post entry feeds as part of MSU’s secondary break. Michigan State was outstanding in this area at mid-season, before injuries started to make an impact. Michigan State is hoping to get back to that level of fastbreak and secondary break proficiency here at the end of the season, and Benford recognizes the threat.
“We've got to do our work early in the post,” he said. “They're one of the best teams in the country in transition. We have to do a good job on defense getting back and protecting the paint.
“We've got to get great help from the other guys. And Goins is a tough matchup. Michigan State reminds me a lot of Tennessee in our league as far as the balance that they have offensively and defensively.’’
McQUAID TO GUARD WATERS?
In addition to strong interior play, MSU will be expecting a strong performance from McQuaid, the Spartans’ best on-ball defender, who also averages 9.9 points a game.
Despite comparing Winston to former UConn great and national champion Kemba Walker, Benford seems to be just as worried about McQuaid.
“The x-factor is Matt McQuaid. He’s a really good shooter,’’ Benford said. “He’s a kid I knew when I was at North Texas. I knew him a long time. He’s a really good player and a great leader for them.”
Benford is expecting McQuaid to be the primary defensive player guarding LSU point guard Waters. McQuaid opened the Bradley game guarding 5-foot-10 point guard Darrell Brown, but Michigan State soon shuffled the defensive assignments and put Winston on Brown for most of the rest of the game.
“He’ll be one of the best defenders probably that Tre’s gone against,” Benford said of McQuaid. “I saw him defend Carsen Edwards and he did a great job against Carsen. He can make shots. He shoots about 44-percent from the three-point line. He just makes big plays for them.’’
MSU didn't reveal its defensive assignment intentions for tonight's game.
While the Tigers will rely on the strength of their backcourt to pull them through, upgraded play from their two big men, who play long, in the 6-foot-11 Bigby-Williams and the 6-10 Reid, the team’s leading rebounder at 7.2 a game, will also be mandatory for LSU’s success.
LSU’s inside duo combines for 21.5 points and 13.9 rebounds a game.
But it’s the guards that can turn a decent LSU performance into a very good performance. They are streaky and dangerous.
After Waters backcourt contributions, LSU depends heavily on junior guard Skylar Mays, who adds 13.6 points a contest. The Tigers also have freshman guard Javonte Smart in reserve, as he comes off the bench to add 11.4 points a game.
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
The last time MSU faced LSU was in 1979. That’s when the Spartans won 87-71 as a No. 2 seed over, ironically enough, a third-seeded LSU team in the Mideast Regional Semifinals.
Of course, we all know what happened after that - MSU won the school’s first national title in a run, led by Magic Johnson, which changed the trajectory of college basketball on a national basis.
But those memories will be the farthest thing from both teams’ minds as they square off Friday.
There may not even be anything to gain from the three common opponents both teams shared this season in Lousiana-Monroe, Florida and Maryland. The Spartans went 3-0 in those games, while LSU finished 3-2, losing to Florida twice.
The search for advantages aside, both teams are just going to roll out their respective styles of play that have gotten them this far and see who comes out on top.
“LSU, they’re really athletic,’’ Winston said. “They get up and down, force a lot of turnovers and they’ve got a lot of quick guards. They’ve got big bigs, so you’ve got to bring your 40 minutes. We can’t let them out tough us and out physical us.’’