Yesterday I introduced my methodology of how I use Kenpom efficiency data to understand why NCAA Tournament upsets happen at the frequency that they do. I used the data for the 2025 Tournament bracket to predict that we are likely to see fewer upsets especially in the first round. I also made some predictions about the make up of the Final Four.

In the second and final part of this series, it is time to dig into the four regions in detail. Which teams will advance to the Final Four in San Antonio? Which big upsets will create buzz in the first two rounds, and how far will the Michigan State Spartans advance? Let's jump right in.

Table 1 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the South Region that I generate in the process of my analysis.

This table gives a lot of information that we will use to make our picks. The left side of the table shows the pre-tournament Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin for each team. The shaded cells on the left side of the table provide a comparison of each team's efficiency relative to the historical average of teams of that seed.

This provides a simple way to look at the relative strength or weakness of each team and the bracket as a whole. If the cell is shaded green, it means that the team is stronger than a historically average team of that seed. If it is shaded red, the team is historically weaker.

The middle of the table shows the odds for each team to advance through each round of the tournament. The teams are sorted not by seed, but by the odds for each team to advance to the Final Four. The red or green shaded cells on the far right are the relative odds for each team to advance through each round compared to historical averages for that seed.

Finally, there is a column labeled "SoD" which stands for "strength of draw." This calculation starts with the odds for a historically average No. 1 seed to advance to the Final Four from any of the 16 positions in the given region on this year's bracket. I then compare those odds to the odds that the same historically average No. 1 seed would have to reach the Final Four in a historically average NCAA Tournament bracket.

The first thing that jumps out is the shear amount of green in the "Relative Kenpom Efficiency" column on the left side of the table. The top 14 seeds in the South are all above average relative to past teams of the same seed.

In many cases, the top seeded teams are significantly above average. Eight total teams in the South Region are more than 3.00 points of Kenpom efficiency margin higher than average. For comparison, there were only six teams in the entire 2024 Tournament that were more than 3.00 points above average.

All the teams in the South are good this year, and the same trend is present in the other three regions as well. This is the main explanation for why the simulation is projecting fewer upsets that normal, especially in the first round. There is a bigger gap than usual between the top 10 or 11 seeds in each region compared to the bottom five or six teams.

Perhaps the most useful part of Table 1 is the section on the far right side. This shows the relative odds for each team to advance through the tournament. The variation in green and red cells give an indication of where certain teams might get tripped up.

For example, Michigan State's path appears "green" until the Sweet 16 where it turns red. This is because, on paper, Iowa State is a much stronger than usual No. 3 seed and No. 1 Auburn, on paper, is a historically very strong No. 1 seed.

No. 5 Michigan and No. 6 Ole Miss are "red" starting with the first round match-ups. While those two teams are both also stronger than average for their seed, they are facing No. 11 North Carolina and No. 12 UC San Diego which are both much stronger than usual their seed. This analysis provide a preview of potential upset picks.

Overall, No. 1 Auburn has the best odds to advance to the Final Four out of the South at 49%, which is 12.5-percentag points above average for a No. 1 seed. No. 2 Michigan State has the second-best odds at 16.5% (about one-in-six). No. 3 Iowa State (13%) and No. 4 Texas A&M (6%) round out the top four.

The Spartans have a 96.8% chance to avoid the dreaded upset by No. 15 Bryant. They then have a 68% chance to advance to the Sweet 16 in Atlanta. Michigan State has a 40% chance to reach the Regional Final and (as mentioned above) a 16.5% chance to make the Final Four. There is a 6.6% chance to reach the Championship Game and a 2.3% chance to win it all, which is the seventh-best odds of any team in the field.

Due the overall strength of the field, every single team in the 2025 Tournament has a negative "strength of draw" rating. The least negative value in the full bracket is -5.3% for No. 12 UC San Diego. Michigan State's draw is rated at -10.5%. This might seem bad, but in this tournament, everything is relative. The Spartans have the second best draw of the four No. 2 seeds, just behind Tennessee (-10.0%)

Finally, my analysis suggests the South Region is the easiest of the four regions in the 2025 Tournament. A historically average No. 1 seed would have a 6.7% chance to win the region.

Table 2 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the West Region. My analysis suggests that an average No. 1 seed would have a 6.3% chance to advance to the Final Four in the West, making it the second easiest region in 2025.

The storyline and analysis in this region is similar to the South. The top 10 teams in the region are all above average and the top four seeds have the best odds to advance to the final weekend. No. 1 Florida has the best odds in the West to reach the Final Four (53%) followed by No. 3 Texas Tech (14%), No. 2 Saint John's (11%) and, No. 4 Maryland (11%).

The relatively poor odds for No. 2 Saint John's stand out as the Red Storms' path turned red in the second round due to a potential matchup with the much-stronger-than-normal No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks.

No. 5 Memphis appears as the clear weak link in the West, which is giving a boost to the odds for the first round opponent, No. 12 Colorado State, as well as for potential second round opponent: No. 4 Maryland.

Defending champions, No. 8 UConn, also have a fully red path thanks to a just slightly tougher than expected first round match with No. 9 Oklahoma.

Table 3 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the Midwest Region. My analysis suggests that an average No. 1 seed would have a 6.0% chance to advance to the Final Four in the Midwest, making it the third easiest region in 2025.

Once again, the top nine seeds are all above average. No. 1 Houston is the favorite to win the region with odds of 40.7%. No. 2 Tennessee (26.5%) and No. 3 Kentucky (6.8%) occupy second and third place with No. 8 Gonzaga (6.6%) surprisingly in fourth place.

Gonzaga has enjoyed a strong Kenpom ranking all year which is certainly the reason for the Zags inflated odds. It appears that Gonzaga may be a potential roadblock for Big 12 Champions Houston to advance the Final Four.

It is notable that Houston has the most difficult relative draw in the entire tournament (-13.9%) as well as the worst odds of all the No. 1 seeds to reach the final weekend.

One other notable observation in the Midwest is that No. 3 Kentucky's path turns red at the Sweet 16 due to a potential matchup with No. 6 Illinois. Similarly, No. 4 Purdue's path also turns red in the third round due to a potential clash with No. 5 Clemson.

Table 4 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the East Region. My analysis suggests that an average No. 1 seed would have a 5.2% chance to advance to the Final Four in the Midwest, making it the most difficult region in 2025.

Just like the other three regions, the top 12 seeds in the East are all stronger than their historical counterparts.

The top four seeds have the best odds to advance to the Final Four, led by No. 1 Duke (56.8%). The Blue Devils also possess the best overall odds to win the National Title at 25%.

The other main contenders in the East Region are No. 2 Alabama (18.2%), No. 3 Wisconsin (8.1%), and No. 4 Arizona (7.6%). Interestingly, No. 7 Saint Mary's College from the West Coast Conference has the next best Final Four odds at 2.7%.

The path for No. 5 Oregon and No. 6 BYU both turn red starting in the first round. The Ducks are one of the few just average seeds in the top half of the entire bracket. This means their path is correspondingly more difficult than usual. As for BYU, the Cougars drew a tough first round opponent in No. 11 VCU. The Rams are appear to be under-seeded and could win a few games this March.