It has been a long semester in East Lansing, full of ups and downs. Over the first few weeks Michigan State did well on the first few biology assignments on nocturnal birds of prey, aquatic reptiles, and large predatory felines. But then they really struggled in the last few questions on the quiz on east coast birds of prey, despite staying up late to study.
That seemed to send the Spartans into a bit of a funk as they proceeded to bomb the assignment on poisonous nuts before losing their homework on water foul due to a weekend trip out west.
After that break Michigan State got back into a groove and aced the mid term on 19th century American literature. (It's a good thing the Spartans boned up on James Fenimore Cooper.)
But after that, the Spartans struggled once again on the assignment on members of the weasel family. Then they seemed to just phone it in on the module on native peoples of the American Midwest.
But last week, Michigan State managed a C+ in shop. Now the Spartans are positioned to get through the semester with a overall passing grade if the they can nail the final exam this weekend in medieval history. If they can, the teacher has promised an opportunity for some extra credit during the holidays.
The test will not be easy, but it is essentially pass/fail. Word on the street is that the questions are tricky and that the professor is a tough grader. But I am confident that if the Spartans work hard and cram for the test, they can get the job done.
But if Michigan State heads home for the holidays with a loss, it is going to stimulate some uncomfortable conversations. Some members of the Michigan State family will still be supportive, while others will question the Spartans' life choices. It might get awkward.
In the final game of the season, on senior day, at home, with a bowl game on the line, failure is simply not an option.
Michigan State Prediction
If we study the history of the series, we find that the Michigan State Spartans and Rutgers Scarlet Knights have faced each other only 15 times with the Spartans leading the series 10-5.
Rutgers won three of the first five matchups from 1988 to 2004. However, once the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014, they lost six straight before finally passing the test in East Lansing in the first game of the COVID-shortened and delayed season of 2020. The only other victory for Rutgers over Michigan State in the Big Ten era came last year in Piscataway.
From the point of view of the Vegas spread, it has been a typical and well-behaved series. The Spartans are 6-6 against the spread versus Rutgers since 2003. Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in New Jersey while just 2-4 in Spartan Stadium.
Historically the Spartans have been favored in the matchup by an average of 13.67 points since 2003. Last year was the first time in that span that Rutgers was favored. The Scarlet Knights got the victory in that game, 27-24, but the Spartans covered.
My source has the spread for this year's game opening with Michigan State as a one-point favorite, and it has bounced around in either direction by a point or two, depending on the casino. Based on the opening spread, the Spartan's odds for a win and a bowl berth are just a fraction better than a coin flip at 53%.
My computer produced a number that was even closer than that. Early Sunday morning my computer has Rutgers favored by 0.0039 points. When I entered the results of the FCS games on Sunday afternoon, the my computer flipped the line in Michigan State's favor to 0.134 points.
No matter how you slice it, this game is projected to be close. That does not mean that it will be close, but all the math points in that direction. Based on the situation, the venue, and what's at stake, I do think that the Spartans pull this one out.
I will go with my computer's pick of Michigan State 24, Rutgers 23.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below provides a cheat sheet for the action in the Big Ten in Week 14, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.