When the calendar turned over from February to March a few weeks ago, the Big Ten race looked like it was going to come right down to the wire. At the time, my analysis suggested that there was about a 40% chance that Michigan State's Senior Day finale would be a winner-take-all showdown of tied teams. The odds for the Spartans to have already clinched an outright title prior to the match were less than 10%.

But the month of March has often been kind to the Green and White and so far, March of 2025 has been vintage Tom Izzo. The Spartans ripped off two more quad one wins while the Wolverines lost to Maryland and Illinois. Then to cap things off, Michigan State humbled the Wolverines by 17 points to send the Senior off as winners.

With the regular season now in the books it is time to shift focus to March and the postseason, starting with the annual Big Ten Basketball Tournament, which is now ongoing.

The Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament bracket for 2025 is shown below prior to the beginning of play on Wednesday,

The Spartans will play on Friday at noon against the winner of the game between No. 8 Oregon and No. 9 Indiana. The Duck and the Hoosiers will square off on Thursday at noon in a game television by the Big Ten Network. Oregon has opened as a 2.5-point favorite, so there is about a 60% chance of Michigan State facing the Ducks on Friday.

On a neutral court, Michigan State projects to be about a 5-point favorite over Oregon (70% chance to win) and a 7-point favorite over Indiana (75% chance to win). The overall odds for each team to advance in the Big Ten Tournament are shown below in Table 1.

Overall, the Spartans have the best overall odds to win the Big Ten Tournament at just below 25%, with No. 2 Maryland checking in at 17%. After that, the next five seeds in the tournament all have championship odds between 7% and 14%.

By contrast, in 2024 Purdue (48%) and Illinois (23%) were the overwhelming favorites coming into the tournament. The Fighting Illini wound up defeating Wisconsin in the Finals after the Badgers upset Purdue in overtime in the semifinals. This analysis suggest that the 2025 tournament will be more competitive and likely more unpredictable than last year's event.

Michigan State projects to have just over a 70% chance to reach the semifinals on Saturday. If the Spartans make it that far, No. 4 UCLA is the most likely opponent (48% odds) despite the fact that No. 5 Wisconsin (44%) projects to be a slight favorite against the Bruins (+2). The Badgers will have to first beat No. 13 Northwestern on Thursday which depresses their odds to make it to Saturday.

Table 1 also gives Michigan State a 44% chance to make it to the Big Ten Tournament Final on Sunday. No. 2 Maryland (34%) has the best odds to be the Spartans' potential opponent in the final. No. 6 Purdue (26%), No. 7 Illinois (18%), and No. 3 Michigan (17%) are the other likely finalists.

Also note the strong correlation in Table 1 between the calculated odds (which use Kenpom efficiency margins) and the odds derived from the Vegas money lines. That correlation is shown visually below in Figure 1.

The data derived from Kenpom's data can clearly be used as a proxy to estimate point spreads, and point spreads have a well-established correlation to game outcomes. This is a tool that is very useful in making predictions about the NCAA Basketball Tournament as well.

In this case, note that the Vegas odds are slightly more optimistic than Kenpom about Illinois' tournament chances and are slightly less optimistic about Wisconsin's chances.

As for a prediction, my biggest concern for Michigan State is getting past the first game of the tournament on Friday afternoon. The Spartans may be a bit rusty after almost a week off, while their opponent (either Oregon or Indiana) would have played a full game in the arena the day before.

It is easy to imagine a scenario where the Spartans struggle to get into a rhythm, especially on offense, and have a performance similar to the games at USC and against Indiana. In this case, an early exit from the tournament is certainly possible.

However, if Michigan Stat can win the first game and advance to the semifinals, I believe the odds of the Spartans winning the whole tournament go up substantially. First, the Spartans appear to be able to avoid some of the more potentially dangerous Big Ten such as Maryland, Purdue, and Illinois until the finals.

More importantly, the Spartans' superior quality depth will be an increasingly potent weapon as the tournament progresses. The Tournament final on Sunday historically tends to be a bit ragged due to team fatigue. The Spartans are likely to be the freshest team left in the tournament as early as Saturday.

There is another school of thought that Michigan State would be better off going home early this weekend to rest for the more important tournament the following week. While I can understand this logic, I believe that it is much more important for the Spartans to have a strong showing in Indianapolis this week.

While it is true that the regular season Big Ten title is more important than a tournament title, winning another banner is still a notable accomplishment. In addition, the depth of this year's Michigan State team means that rest is not nearly as important as it has been in some of the past years. I am more concerned with rust than I am with rest.

It will be a few days before the official bracket is released, but it is already possible to get a preview of what the 2025 NCAA Tournament might look like. I have started to run a few simulations using a potentially representative bracket. So far, there is one observation that is sticking out.

The 2025 Tournament could see a remarkably small number of upsets, especially in the first round.

The current data suggests that the top eight seeds or top 32 teams this year are much stronger as a group than usual while the teams project to be double-digit seeds are generally weaker than usual. This trend suggests that the point spreads for first round games will likely be larger than usual, which should translate to few upsets.

Here is another way to look at the data. Figure 2 below is one of my typical pieces of March Madness analysis for the 2024 Tournament.