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Published Nov 7, 2023
Dr. Green and White Against All Odds, Week 10: Sweetness and Light
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Paul Fanson  â€˘  Spartans Illustrated
Staff Writer
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@PaulFanson

Michigan State football fans have been living with a bad taste in their mouths for weeks. At first it was the taste of disgust over the actions of a now-fired head coach. Then, it was the taste of embarrassment as Washington blew the Spartans out and Michigan State fumbled away a chance to beat Maryland.

The taste then turned bitter as Michigan State let leads slip away at Iowa, Rutgers and Minnesota. Somewhere in there, the Spartan fans threw up in their mouths a bit while watching the Wolverines run up and down the field in Spartan Stadium all night.

But last Saturday afternoon, Michigan State fans finally tasted something new or at least something that they had not tasted in some time. It was like finding that extra bag of Halloween candy that is still fresh, but that has passed the statute of limitations to necessitate sharing it with the children of the house. (Shhhhh!)

That taste, of course, was the sweet, sweet taste of victory. After seven straight weeks without a 'W,' the Spartans finally got it done with a 20-17 win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

I have felt for weeks that the Spartans would rise up, play a clean game and score a victory or two over a Big Ten opponent. My faith wavered, but the Green and White finally delivered. For the seniors who left Spartan Stadium in their final game of the building's 100th season, that taste of victory was as sweet as a buttered ear of corn on a warm August day.

The victory over Nebraska likely comes too late to substantially impact the Michigan State season on the whole. It may simply mean that the Spartans avoided the first double-digit loss season in program history. But tasting victory once again brings some much-needed light to an otherwise dark few weeks and that's not nothing.

As the season draws to a close, Spartan fans can now start to see a light in the distance at the end of this dark tunnel. Names are starting to emerge as potential candidates to fill the current head coaching vacancy. Brighter and sweeter days are just around the corner.

Week 10 Betting Results

Now it is time to shine a light on the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with a summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.

A total of 11 teams overachieved significantly by beating the opening spread by more than 14 points. Those teams include Tennessee, Oregon, Utah, Penn State, UNLV, West Virginia and Kentucky. The single team that underachieved notable, yet still managed to win this weekend was Tulane.

A total of 21 teams experienced the sour taste of upset defeat. This is the most recorded upsets in a single week so far in 2023. This value is at the high end of the expected range based on last week's simulation, which projected more upsets than past weeks. Table 1 below summarizes the upsets compared to last week's picks.

The biggest upset of the week was Air Force's 20-point loss to Army (+19), which will have a major impact on the Group of Five's eventual berth in the New Year's Six Bowls. Other notable upsets include Stanford over Washington State (-13), Indiana over Wisconsin (-9.5), Oklahoma State over Oklahoma (-6), Clemson over Notre Dame (-3), and Kansas over Iowa State (-1.5).

My algorithm's upset picks went a sweet 5-1 (83%) to bring the year-to-date record to an impressive 26-27 (49%). The FPI also had a respectful outing at 2-3 (40%) bringing the overall record to 15-27 (36%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' suggested picks against the opening spread.

My computer only had one pick this week (Notre Dame to cover versus Clemson), which turned out to the wrong. As a result, my computer drifted back into dark territory for the year at 18-19 (49%). My analysis of the FPI data had a much brighter result. Those picks went an impressive 5-1 (83%), but the year-to-date record sits at just 34-40 (46%).

For the full week of games, both computers were a bland 31-31 (50%). Year-to-date my algorithm has a slight five-game lead on the FPI with a record of 271-275 (49.6%) compared to 266-280 (48.7%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 10.

The point total bets continue to have a bad aftertaste despite being much sweeter at the front end of the season. My computer's "lock" picks went 5-6 (46%) while the full collection of recommended picks were 7-7 (50%). Year-to-date the locks are sitting 25-30 (46%), while the overall recommended picks are at 83-91 (48%). Yuck.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 10, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten Conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the College Football Playoff poll that will be released this week.

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