EAST LANSING - Michigan State’s season turned on a negative dime, Saturday, and it’s uncertain whether it will turn back.
The Spartans’ 29-19 loss to Northwestern yielded a long list of problems - some new, some old - with decreasing indication that any of them will be solved any time soon, other than the fact that the head coach has overseen some great mid-season surges in the past.
Mark Dantonio is saying all the right things, and his leadership has been terrific in the past. He will bring a calm demeanor to Sunday’s film study and the beginning of prep for Penn State, but the challenges are steep:
* An offensive line battered by continued injuries couldn’t make room for the run game. Michigan State started a redshirt freshman walk-on at right guard. Later, another redshirt freshman played for the first time in his career, out of necessity. Only one offensive lineman has started all five games at the same position. These weren’t the plans in August.
* In the late stages of the game, pass protection broke down.
* Brian Lewerke threw for 329 yards on 31 attempts. He had some hot moments, and cool ones, but it was difficult for him to get into a rhythm when he had no run game for balance, wavering pass protection, and an odd assortment of second- and third-string wide receivers, again due to injuries to some front-liners.
* Due largely to problems on the offensive line, Michigan State tailbacks totaled 33 yards on 13 carries (2.5 per attempt). No Michigan State tailback had a gain of more than nine yards.
* Michigan State scored touchdowns on 1-of-4 trips into the red zone. That’s 25 percent. Most teams aim for 67 percent. Michigan State has been south of 50 percent in too many games this year, and it caught up with the Spartans against Northwestern, as it did against Arizona State.
* Lack of run game and lack of receiver depth contributed to problems in the red zone.
Brandon Sowards allowed an accurate pass to slip through his hands on third down during MSU’s first trip into the red zone. Sowards wanted a flag for pass interference. Instead, Michigan State settled for its first field goal of the game, and its first red zone failure.
* Felton Davis had a good game, and carried the team through the middle quarters. But Davis has to play too many snaps because the rest of the receivers are still getting acclimated to the playing group. They aren't yet trusted.
A tiring Davis allowed an accurate pass to sail through his hands in the end zone late in the second quarter. He admitted after the game that fatigue caused him to be late with his hands on that play. He’s doing all he can. But he can’t do it all.
Two plays later, Michigan State had to settle for another field goal, another red zone failure, and a 14-6 deficit.
* MSU’s tight ends are having trouble blocking, finishing catches and keeping their feet after making a catch.
* Michigan State has been outscored 51-7 in the fourth quarter of its last four games, including 7-0 in this one.
Michigan State failed miserably on a pair of desperate fourth-quarter drives.
With 6:41 remaining, Michigan State lost six yards on a first-down swing pass to walk-on running back Alante Thomas, playing for the first time in his college career. Then Lewerke barely escaped a safety on the next two plays due to repeated pressure. Michigan State had to punt.
On the next drive, Michigan State failed to pick up second-and-one (missed blitz pick-up by running back La’Darius Jefferson), third-and-one (pressure again, leading to an incompletion) and fourth-and-one (on a power run attempt through right guard).
“At the end I'm just like, ‘Get the first down,’” Dantonio said. “And we tried to run and can't get a first down, can’t get a yard.
“That's troublesome,” said Dantonio, widening his hands three feet apart for emphasis. “That much.”
SOME QUESTIONS
The direction of the season has come down to these questions:
* Can the offense improve without the offensive line regaining full health?
* Even if the offensive line regains health, will the unit be any good anyway?
* If the offensive line comes back strong, will Lewerke be any better?
* If the offensive line and Lewerke improve, will play design, play calling and execution be better?
These are not a chain of questions you want to be asking of your team heading into mid-October.
Michigan State has lost plenty of games through Dantonio’s 150-game tenure as head coach, but this one was strange and alarming. Strange that an offense can churn out 425 total yards (not a bad figure) and 329 yards through the air, and rightly be considered ineffective.
Strange that Michigan State can remain outstanding in run defense (allowing a net of eight yards on 20 carries), yet commit a weekly catastrophic bust in pass defense.
On this day, a Northwestern receiver was wide open down the left sideline for a 73-yard TD strike and a 7-3 lead, erasing what had been a quality start for the defense, and sending Spartan Stadium into a groan of dread. These fans had seen Northwestern riddle the Spartan secondary in the past, and it seemed to be starting again.
On the coverage bust, cornerback Josh Butler played cover-two zone, expecting safety David Dowell to pick up the receiver down the sideline in halves coverage. But Dowell didn’t see him until it was too late and didn't patrol his half of the field.
Busts occasionally happen to defensive backfields. But they can’t happen every week. They certainly can’t happen every week when this Michigan State offense is tasked with trying to make up for them.
When Michigan State fell behind 14-3 in the second quarter, how many of you thought 11 points was too many for this offense to overcome? I’m raising my hand, too.
But we were wrong. The offense did rally, helping Michigan State take a 19-14 lead on a 48-yard reverse by Davis and a 3-yard TD pass to Davis on a difficult catch via a back-shoulder fade.
Michigan State seemed to be in the process of forcing a three-and-out on Northwestern’s next possession when Naquan Jones waylaid a Wildcat receiver on second down. Jones was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for stepping over the fallen receiver and celebrating too much.
Rather than third-and-five and facing a growing avalanche of Spartan momentum, Northwestern was awarded 15 yards. Seven plays later, Northwestern took the lead for good at 22-19.
That was the turning point in the game. This team isn’t good enough to overcome a personal foul penalty.
DANTONIO SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS
When talking about the team’s problems after the game, Dantonio sounded like an appalled observer, like one of us.
“As close as the game was, at the end of the game you felt like it was just getting fouled up, didn't you?” Dantonio said. “It felt like it was just spinning out of control. Too many mishaps.”
But Dantonio was calm and confident about what’s next, but also frank.
“Hey, I'm as disappointed as anybody, believe me,” Dantonio said. “And I’m sort of searching for answers, too. You (as a coach) can't criticize that until you watch the film and listen to what went on with it.
“You look at the film and then you talk to the players and hear what they say and see what was played and what defense played and what techniques were involved, and you're going to be sitting there asking yourself, ‘Okay what happened on this play?’”
Co-offensive coordinator Dave Warner has been a focal point of criticism. It’s hard to find plays that work without a run game or pass protection. But he’s expected to make chicken salad out of this chicken shice.
“I’m not sure what the answer is, or what the reason is to why we're not executing at the end of the game,” Warner said. “Obviously, it needs to be addressed and needs to be corrected.”
What about the problems in the red zone?
“The problem is execution and overall offense,” Warner said. “Doesn't matter if we're backed up on our own goal line or the 1-yard line, we need to execute, simple as that.”
Warner was asked how much blame rests with play calling.
“A lot, evidently,” he said. “We've got to find a way to call plays that work. We've been searching for that. We've won three games and I've been searching for it from every game, win or lose, but I'll take responsibility for that."
The red zone play calls? Do you want to complain about them or get educated on them, or both? Let’s take a look.
FIRST RED ZONE TRIP:
* First-and-10 at the 15: Speed option pitch for a gain of four.
Michigan State went F.I.B. on that play (formation into the boundary), for a new look. It produced a little room to run. But this was the only tailback run play that Michigan State would call in the red zone all day.
* Second-and-six at the 11: Operating under center, Lewerke faked a handoff to a tailback and handed to Davis on an end around. It gained two yards.
Michigan State uses the end around and fly sweep a ton. The play cemented victory at Indiana. In theory, the threat of the fly sweep can keep an outside linebacker a half-step out of the box, which can benefit inside runs for the tailback. But it hasn’t all clicked together successfully.
* Third-and-four at the 9: Lewerke delivered a good pass to Sowards. Sowards was held by a defender. Northwestern tactically held all day. This one paid off. Sowards didn’t finish the catch. It would have taken a terrific play by Sowards to finish it. But he wasn’t terrific enough.
Field goal.
“You get down in the red zone, you're down there and you’ve got to get it,” Dantonio said. “Some of that is execution, some of that may be play calling, some of that may be decision-making, might be where to go with the ball, or may be pass protection breaking down or whatever the case. Some of it's Northwestern playing well too.
So again, you’ve got to look at it.”
The Takeaway: If MSU can't trust the tailback run down here, the receiver Sowards needs to finish that difficult grab despite the pass interference. That's a lot to ask.
Bad play call? Not really. It's probably a TD without the tactical holding.
SECOND RED ZONE TRIP:
* First-and-10 at the 13: Incomplete pass intended for Davis. That was the play in which a fatigued Davis failed to get his hands up and ready for a well-thrown ball.
“I know I left some plays out there that I wish I could've made,” Davis said. “Everybody depended on me today to make plays and for the most part, I did what I could.”
Earlier on the drive, Davis caught a 13-yarder on a comeback. Then Davis fought through defensive holding to haul in a 26-yarder on a skinny post.
After a pair of catches like that, Davis would ordinarily check out of the game. But the wide receiver bench is short, due to Cody White’s broken hand. Darrell Stewart was only semi-available on this day, after missing most of the practice week. Jalen Nailor was unavailable again.
So Davis stayed on the field.
On the very next snap, Michigan State called a deep go route for Davis. Lewerke threw a deep incompletion toward Davis.
Davis was gassed on his way back to the huddle. He stayed in the game, and ran a pass route on the next play (which went to Cam Chambers for 15 yards), but Davis spent more energy.
He walked back to the huddle, visibly tired. And that’s when they called the play that resulted in Davis being open in the end zone on first-and-10, and letting the ball go through his hands.
* Second-and-10 at the 13: Lewerke scrambled for a gain of six. Tight end Matt Sokol was held on the play. Northwestern did a ton of holding on this day, especially in the red zone. The officials won’t call all of them.
* Third-and-four at the 7: Swing pass to tailback Connor Heyward for no gain. He fell backward while catching it. The ball was thrown to Heyward’s back hip. The Bill Walsh theory of west coast offense would call for that ball to be thrown out in front of Heyward so he could catch and run more comfortably.
MSU’s swing passes and screen passes were largely unsuccessful on the day, usually against zone defenses that could keep an eye on the flat and break on the ball.
In this case, Michigan State happened to catch Northwestern in man-to-man. Swings and screens work better against man. That might be why Lewerke went directly to Heyward on this play rather than Davis on the slant. But accuracy wasn’t perfect.
“We self-scout ourselves,” Dantonio said. “We’ll ask questions, whether we should run it, or we should not? What was the problem? Was it execution? Was it structure or was it performance by the other team, a good play by the other team? And then you ask yourself, ‘Okay does that play need to continue to be used?’”
The Takeaway: Bill Walsh used say "think players, not plays" in clutch situations. Heyward and Sokol might not be the best pass-receiving choices short of the goal line in these situations. But it was just last week that I was saying that tight ends needed to be targeted more in the red zone.
THIRD RED ZONE TRIP:
First-and-10 at the 20: Heyward gained 2 on an inside zone run.
Second-and-8 at the 18: Lewerke threw incomplete, too hot for Sokol as a checkdown in the left flat. Tough ball to catch.
Third-and-8 at the 18: Davis was breaking free on a skinny post. The Northwestern defender grabbed Davis by the hair and was flagged for holding.
First-and-goal at the 3: Center Matt Allen gave Lewerke a bad snap. Lewerke hurriedly grounded a throw at Heyward’s feet. Catastrophe averted.
Second-and-goal at the 3: Back shoulder fade TD pass to Davis. Accurate throw, good coverage, very good catch.
Touchdown. Michigan State leads 19-14.
The Takeaway: It seems to be Davis or bust down here.
Fourth Red Zone Trip:
Michigan State trailed 29-19 with less than a minute to play.
* First-and-goal at the 6: Incomplete post pass intended for Stewart. Stewart was held on the play. The Northwestern DB had a fist full of jersey, water skiiing behind Stewart. No flag.
* Second-and-goal at the 6: Allen with another low snap, Lewerke threw incomplete for C.J. Hayes.
* Third-and-goal at the 6: Short out route to Sokol. Sokol fell down while making the catch at the 1-yard line, just another strange, stiff ball play by a running back or tight end in the flat on this day. Michigan State just looked unathletic and unskilled at those positions all day, aside from a terrific catch by Jefferson on a third-down slant.
* Fourth-and-goal at the 6 with :27 seconds left: Incomplete back shoulder fade intended for Davis.
Result: Turnover on downs.
“Some of it's where you go to with the ball, some of it is the play of the defense, some of it's the protection, some of it’s maybe the call,” Dantonio said. “We’ll certainly look at everything. I’m not going not going to sit here and say that this isn't coaching, and this is all execution or whatever the case is. This is a football team and it didn't get done. That's the bottom line.”
SUNDAY MORNING QB
Should Michigan State have kicked a field goal on fourth down with :25 seconds left? Nah. It was too late by then.
By that time, MSU’s best chance of getting 10 points would be to score a TD, get an onside kick and hope to travel about 18 yards in :25 seconds for a 50-yard field goal. Going the full 50 yards for a TD in :25 seconds after an onside kick would have been far less likely than picking up a 1-yard pass on fourth down.
Those wanted a field goal in that situation, should Michigan State have kicked a field goal on first down rather than waiting for fourth down? Maybe so.
Lewerke’s 27-yard completion to Cam Chambers created the first-and-goal with :57 seconds left. If you’re in the pro-field goal camp, that’s when Michigan State should have considered kicking the field goal, and then Michigan State would have had :52 seconds to go 50 yards for a TD if the Spartans recovered an on-side kick.
But then again, nah. You’re at the 6-yard line. Get the TD now, if you can.
Michigan State didn’t lose the game on those low-probability prop bets. Michigan State lost because of two failed reception attempts in the end zone, a DB bust for a 73-yard TD, and MSU’s overall inability to gain a yard on the ground when it needed it, and inability to pass protect in late-game situations for the second straight year against Northwestern.
“We got a lot of different offensive linemen playing, so those things all take a toll on the quarterback,” Dantonio said. “He had pressure in his face, or off the edges, and he's feeling pressure all day.
“Northwestern, they did a nice job. We knew they were stout up front, we knew they were thick, and that they would bull rush you and if you didn't get the ball off quickly, that he was going to feel pressure.
“We’re constantly looking for answers, that's for sure. But I think we have all the different protections we need to maybe get him out on the move some. We didn't do that as much today but all those types of things will be questions we ask ourselves.”
* If I were to second-guess a major decision, it would have been MSU’s decision to punt on fourth-and-three at the Northwestern 42-yard line on the opening drive of the second half.
Michigan State trailed 14-6 at the time, but seemed to be taking control of the game.
Keeping the ball out of Northwestern’s hands seemed like a good idea.
I understand the idea of trying to pin Northwestern deep and play to your defense, but MSU’s defense was hit-and-miss.
Keep Thorson on the bench. Go for it right there. The risk/reward is favorable in that situation.
Michigan State decided to punt and walk-on replacement Tyler Hunt hit a 23-yarder.
Northwestern took over at its 18-yard line.
If you go for it and get stopped, you would have only been risking a 23-yard change in field position.
Twenty-three yards versus an extra possession and keeping Thorson off the field? Yes, please.
THE REST OF IT
All of those problems and we barely mentioned that another team threw for more than 300 yards against Michigan State, 373 to be exact.
Michigan State has tried different ways to defense Northwestern over the years. Michigan State isn’t running the Narduzzi base quarters on every snap, the way the Spartans did eight, 10, 12 years ago when the Wildcats seemed to throw for 800 yards against Michigan State.
Michigan State mixed in cover-one, man-to-man; cover-three zone pressures; cover-four off; cover-two. They mixed it up with nickel defense on second down, which is something Michigan State rarely does.
The best way I can describe it is Northwestern's route concepts and the way their receivers are tought to run routes and find open space meshes well against the way MSU defensive backs are taught to cover.
Northwestern dinked and dunked enough to be a headache for the Spartans.
But it was the 73-yarder on the bust, and one well-thrown, 34-yard TD to J.J. Jefferson against good coverage by Tre Person that blew up the numbers.
“Their offensive linemen and their receivers did a nice job and they were effective,” Dantonio said. “We stopped the run, but you got to pressure the quarterback. Come away with two turnovers, we needed three.”
What about Northwestern? Weren’t they sucking this year?
Yes, but not anymore.
Clayton Thorson, one of the most underrated QBs in the country, is back to being the sniper he was most of last year. He suffered an ACL injury in December. He came back slowly, with limited snaps in September.
“You can just see him get stronger each week,” Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald said. “The guy is a winner and terrific as a leader. I think he is finally getting himself closer and closer to 100 percent.”
Just in time to give Michigan State a dose of sour reality.
“We’ve been trying to make explosive plays all year,” Fitzgerald said. “We’ve unfortunately been on the short end of some drops, we’ve been on the short end of some bad throws, we’ve had guys open and then we’ve had bad protection. So it’s kind of been like sticking your finger in the dam and another hole springs open. Today, I thought we just had some guys make some big plays.
“We just hadn’t made those completions in other games. Clayton and the guys on the outside went out and executed.”
And the 21-yard TD pass to tight end Cameron Green against Tyriq Thompson on a well-covered wheel route (which gave Northwestern a 22-19 lead)?
“Clayton put it in the perfect spot,” Green said. “I don’t think I even broke stride. The guy was right on top of me and the ball was right there.”
Marvelous. Just in time for Halloween.
Why does Thorson throw for nine million yards every time he faces Michigan State?
“Our offensive line gave me time, a lot of time, because that’s a good front seven," Thorson said of MSU. "We were talking at halftime, and we thought that was one of the most athletic front sevens we’ve played, so our offensive line did a good job. Our o-line was giving me time to let our receivers get down there and work and get open.”
WHAT’S NEXT …
I think MSU’s position coaches and coordinators need to make sure the players continue to buy in to the team concepts and positional schemes. It might have been my imagination, but I sensed some players becoming frustrated with Michigan State's schematics and decisions.
I think the players love and trust Dantonio. But Dantonio needs the soldiers to trust the field lieutenants.
“The main thing is that we stay focused, that we stay together, don't get pulled apart as individuals and as a group and keep pushing forward and that's what we'll do,” Dantonio said.
With powerful Penn State, and surging Michigan coming in the next two weeks, it's becoming a crisis management situation at MSU.
“When Monday comes, people are going to be challenged,” said junior linebacker Joe Bachie. “If you don’t want to lead and you don’t want to go win, get out of the locker room. We don’t have many people like that, I don’t think, at all. We just have to make sure everybody’s on board and we’re going in one direction.
“You’ve got to bounce back quick, you’ve got to challenge certain people. Leaders on this team, if you really want to lead, you’re going to get challenged this week and I’m going to let them know that.”
Plenty of hearts are in the right place, but can significant progress be made with the revolving door continuing at offensive line and wide receiver?
“We'll get some players back hopefully, get ourselves ready to go and go compete,” Dantonio said. “The only thing that we can do is regroup, get ourselves ready to go against Penn State.
“We’ll find the answers, I feel pretty confident in that. We'll right the ship.”