After a 2-0 start, Michigan State faces its first road test in Iowa City on the heels of a two-game skid.
The Spartans square off with the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium in what should be a hostile environment. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday (NBC/Peacock).
Last week, Iowa suffered its first loss of the season at the hands of Penn State, a 31-0 rout in Beaver Stadium.
Point at a Premium
Both sides sport less-than-favorable offensive numbers heading into Saturday night's game.
Iowa rolls out the 105th offense in college football (out of 130 nationally) at 21.2 points per game, which also ranks last in the Big Ten. Michigan State has had struggles of its own scoring the football, checking in at No. 92 in the FBS at 23 points per contest.
In terms of total offense, Iowa ranks 129th out of 130 FBS teams and last in the Big Ten (245.5 yards per game). Michigan State ranks 80th nationally and eighth in the conference at 377 yards per game.
What to Watch For
Michigan State might have a good chance, even if public sentiment might not suggest that. Despite being 12.5-point underdogs on the road and losing 49-7 in the last matchup with the Hawkeyes in 2020, the Spartans have fallen victim to untimely drops and turnovers when they’ve managed to move the ball.
MSU has more than doubled Iowa’s yardage on the season in its passing game alone. Iowa has struggled to move the ball in any fashion, evidently, notching just 508 passing yards through four games.
Per Iowa offensive coordination Brian Ferentz’s contract, the Hawkeyes’ unit must average 25.0 points per game, a stipulation that highlighted the programs perennial deficiency in scoring on the offensive side of the ball over the past couple of seasons. As mentioned, Iowa is currently falling short of that mark through four games (21.2 points per game).
The Hawkeyes have routinely relied on their defense to create scoring chances off turnovers.
Iowa leads the all-time series at 24-22-2 and holds a winning record, 14-10-1, at Kinnick Stadium. Interestingly, MSU won the first-ever matchup in its first game as a member of the Big Ten, a 21-7 victory in Iowa City in 1953.
Familiar Foe
Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara’s production has stalled since transferring from Michigan. For reference, the former Wolverines' signal caller went 28-for-44 for 383 yards and two touchdowns last time he met the Spartans, which was in East Lansing in 2021. McNamara and Michigan’s offense tore up Michigan State's secondary on timely crossing routes, but thanks to five touchdowns from running back Kenneth Walker III, the game resulted in a victory for the Spartans.
McNamara dealt with injuries leading into the 2023 regular season, but has started all four of Iowa's games so far this year. This season, McNamara’s 50.6% completion rate marks an opportunity for MSU’s defense to take advantage of a favorable matchup. The Hawkeyes' veteran posts just 459 yards on four touchdowns to three interceptions on the campaign.
Synopsis
I’d expect Iowa to try to open up its offense, however possible. This will likely turn into a defensive slug fest, but maybe not in the sense that we’re used to when the Spartans face the Hawkeyes.
Michigan State lost its last meeting in Iowa City, 49-7 in 2020, but I see the Spartans capitalizing on the opportunity to pull off an unlikely upset, exploiting Iowa’s deficiencies on the Hawkeyes' home turf.
For more on what to expect from the Hawkeyes, check out Spartans Illustrated's question-and-answer session with Go Iowa Awesome.
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