Very seldom does a team lose by 31 points and an argument for “progress” can be made. Last Saturday night may have been the exception for the Spartans as they fell to No. 3 ranked Ohio State, 38-7.

That progress was primarily in the first half, as the Spartans found the red zone in their first four possessions of the game. Unfortunately, this early success lent them only seven points, as they turned it over twice and got stopped on fourth and one.

The path forward doesn't get any easier, though, as the Spartans make their furthest road trip of the year to Eugene, Oregon to face the No. 6-ranked Oregon Ducks, on Friday night at 9 p.m. at Autzen Stadium (FOX). The Ducks are 23.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings.

The Ducks are led by graduate transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who leads the nation in completion percentage at 81.5%. He’s thrown for 1,192 yards, 10 touchdowns, and one interception.

The Ducks' season began on rocky ground, where, despite out-gaining Idaho in total yardage 487 to 217 for the game, found themselves with a just three-point lead with 9:45 left in the fourth quarter. Oregon eventually won by just 10 points against the FCS opponent, 24-14. Oregon then was tested by Boise State, winning by just three points. However, the Ducks have improved since then, defeating both Oregon State and UCLA, respectively, in blowout fashion over the past two games.

So how do the Spartans match up? Let's take a look.

Michigan State:

-Record: 3-2 (1-1 in Big Ten)

-Offense: 369.8 YPG, 237.4 passing YPG, 132.4 rushing YPG

-Defense: 300.4 YPG, 186.0 passing YPG, 114.4 rushing YPG

-Third-down offense: 45.16%

-Third-down defense: 41.1%

-Points per game: 21.80

-Points per game allowed: 19.00

Oregon:

-Record: 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten)

-Offense: 454.0 YPG, 301.75 passing YPG, 154.75 rushing YPG

-Defense: 266.8 YPG, 154.75 passing YPG, 112.0 rushing YPG

-Third-down offense: 48.98%

-Third-down defense: 33.93%

-Points per game: 36.00

-Points per game allowed: 18.75

Current SP+ rankings:

-Michigan State: 73rd in FBS

-Oregon: 8th in FBS

All-Time Series: Oregon leads, 4-3

Series in Eugene: Oregon leads, 3-0

Last Meeting: Oregon 7, MSU 6 (2018 Redbox Bowl)

Current Series Streak: 1 by Oregon

Michigan State all-time record: 733-489-44 (.596)

Oregon all-time record: 708-511-46 (.578)

MSU Offense Keeping Pace

Aidan Chiles and the MSU offense should enter Autzen Stadium with some confidence that they’ve been able to move the ball against a top defense in college football. Lindgren spoke on the importance of watching tape after a game like Ohio State, saying: “It’s really cool to show those guys on the film how it’s there — and how close we are — but the bottom line is we (have) to execute more consistently at a high level and we (have) to take care of the football.”

If MSU can parlay the good play, and correct the red zone errors, they’ll have a chance to attack this Oregon defense and compete in this game.

MSU Pass Rush

MSU is tied for the lead in the Big Ten lead with Indiana with 35.0 tackles for loss, and third in sacks with 15.0.

Co-captain fifth-year senior Jordan Turner appears to be the leader of this defense, and for good reason.

Not only is he a vocal presence in the locker room, but his play has been outstanding through four games. He leads the team in tackles with 31, TFL’s with 6.5, and tied for the team lead with 3.0 sacks.

Gabriel has been pretty comfortable in the pocket this season, so MSU’s ability to create discomfort, and force Gabriel to rush a throw, and possibly turn the ball over would be massive for the Spartans chances.

Smith Rekindles Old Rivalry

The Spartans are a different team, comprised of different players than the Beavers were under Jonathan Smith. The run game is a bit behind that of the 2020 Beavers that finished the game running the ball 18 times in a row en route to a 41-38 victory over the Ducks.

But the experience can't hurt.

While Ohio State was a relatively unfamiliar foe to Smith and his staff, Oregon State and Dan Lanning are not.

“We played Oregon when I was at other universities as a coach, too," Smith said. "And so, I've kind of been through this before, being at a different place and the connections. We know through experience kind of how tough it is, that atmosphere in where we're playing at. And so we'll just try to prep our guys for a tough road environment. Obviously, their schemes the last couple of years have been consistent, and so we've studied and game planned against it. And that's a two-way street. Same with us offensively. The offenses aren't exactly the same year in and year out, right, they're always developing. But I don't know if one side gets an advantage with it.”

While the element of surprise may be gone, Jonathan Smith’s success against the Ducks suggests - if an antidote to the fast-paced explosive Ducks exists - Smith may have it.

-Date/Kickoff Time: Friday, Oct. 4, 9:05 p.m. Eastern Time

-TV Channel/Streaming: FOX

-TV Announcers: Jason Benetti (play-by-play), Brock Huard (analyst), Allison Williams (sidelines)

-Radio: Spartan Media Network

-Radio Play-by-play: George Blaha

-Radio Analyst: Jason Strayhorn

-Radio Sidelines: Jehuu Caulcrick

-Radio Broadcast Host: Will Tieman

-Location: Eugene, Ore.

-Stadium: Austen Stadium (54,000)

-Weather Expectations: 54 degrees at kick-off, wind 2-4 mph, gusts up to 11 mph.

It’ll take some big plays, a little luck, and great play from Aidan Chiles to leave Eugene victorious. Bad teams don't pull off upsets, so if MSU is to take down the Ducks, they’ll need to pitch nearly a perfect game.

Last week gave some optimism that this offense can be dangerous — next year.

For now, it has a few weapons - Marsh, Velling, Chiles, Glover, and two running backs - that have shown spurts of highly proficient offense.

I’d keep an eye out for Nick Marsh this week; in his limited action he looked nearly 100% against the Buckeyes, and his speed and size should be an advantage the Spartans look to utilize. He and Chiles getting back to their Maryland show-stopping performance would be a welcome sight for Spartan fans.

Can the Spartans string together enough scoring drives, and convert in the red zone? They’ll have to if they want a fighting chance.

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