Dr. Green and White March Madness Advice, Part Two: Bracket Breakdown

Yesterday, I introduced my methodology of how I use Kenpom efficiency data to understand why NCAA Tournament upsets happen at the frequency that they do. I used the data for the 2024 Tournament bracket to predict that we are likely to see fewer upsets, in the first two rounds in particular. I also made some predictions about the make-up of the Final Four.

In the second and final part of this series, it is time to dig into the four regions in detail. Which teams will advance to Phoenix? Which big upsets will create buzz in the first two rounds, and how far will the Michigan State Spartans advance? Let's jump in.

Table 1 below summarizes all the relevant data for the East Region.

This table gives a lot of information that we will use to make our picks. The left side of the table shows the pre-tournament Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin for each team. The shaded cells on the left side of the table provide a comparison of each team's efficiency relative to the historical average of teams of that seed. This provides a simple way to look at the relative strength or weakness of each team and the bracket as a whole.

The middle of the table shows the odds for each team to advance through each round of the tournament. The teams are sorted not by seed, but by the odds for each team to advance to the Final Four. The red or green shaded cells on the far right are the relative odds for each team to advance compared to historical averages for that seed.

Finally, there is a column labeled "SoD" which stands for "strength of draw." This calculation starts with the odds for a historically average No. 1 seed to advance to the Final Four from any of the 16 positions on this year's bracket. I then compare those odds to the odds that the same historically average No. 1 seed would have to reach the Final Four in a historically average NCAA Tournament bracket.

One clear observation from Table 1 is that despite UConn being the No. 1 overall seed, the Huskies were placed in the most difficult region in the tournament. The primary indicator of this fact is that all 16 teams have a notably negative strength of draw. The teams in the East Region have between a four percent and eight percent more difficult draw than teams in a historically average region.

The primary reason for this difficulty is evident from the data in the relative Kenpom efficiency column. The top four seeds and five of the top six seeds are significantly above average compared to past teams of their seed.

All of the top four seeds have over a 10% chance to advance to the Final Four, but the clear outlier is No. 4 Auburn. The Tigers have the second-best odds to advance to the Final Four at 21%, which is 11 percentage points higher than a historically average No. 4 seed. One other potential team to watch in the East is above average No. 6 BYU.

Table 2 below summarizes all the relevant data for the South Region.

The South Region is the second most difficult region in the 2024 Tournament based on average strength of draw, but it is significantly easier than the East Region. Based on the data in Table 2, No. 1 seed Houston is the clear favorite to advance to the Final Four. The Cougars have a 46% chance to advance to the final weekend, which is by far the best odds of any team in the tournament.

Unlike the East, No. 2 Marquette and No. 3 Kentucky are relatively weak. In fact, the team with the second-best chance to win the South Region is No. 4 Duke (15%). If Houston can advance past the Sweet 16, their path to the Final Four will likely be clear.

The reason for this speculation is that the teams seeded No. 7 through No. 10 in the South Region are relatively strong. Therefore, there is significant potential for chaos on the bottom half of this bracket.

Specifically, I will be on the lookout for No. 10 Colorado. The Buffalos are above average for their seed and could wreak havoc in the bottom of the bracket if they can escape from the First Four on Wednesday evening.

Table 3 below summarizes all the relevant data for the Midwest Region.