In part one of my Big Ten Basketball math-driven preview, I presented an overview of the relative strength of all 18 Big Ten teams. Then, we investigated the overall Big Ten schedule to understand the impact of having an easy or difficult slate.

We found that Michigan State is currently ranked among the best teams in the Big Ten. The Spartans have a slightly easier schedule than many teams in the conference, but overall, the difference between the easiest schedule in the league (belonging to Penn State) and the hardest schedule (which belongs to Minnesota) is only worth about one game in the standings out of 20 total.

In today's contribution, we will dig into the details of Michigan State's schedule. Then, we will put all the pieces together to see how the Big Ten race is likely to play out.

Let's begin by taking a closer look at Michigan State's schedule to get a flavor of the potential ebb and flow of Big Ten conference play.

Figure 1 below visualizes the schedule by showing the projected point spreads and victory odds for the remaining 18 Big Ten games.

From the big picture point of view, the data in Figure 1 gives the expected number of wins for the Spartans, which is equal to the sum of the 20 victory probabilities for all of Michigan State's games. This value is currently 12.77 wins. Figure 1 also suggests that the Spartans currently project to be favored in 13 of the remaining 18 Big Ten contests.

A closer look at the data reveals that the Spartans currently project to be at least a four-point favorite (with at least a 66% chance to win) in eight remaining Big Ten games. These eight games are the road games at USC and Rutgers, and the home games against Minnesota, Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Purdue.

Conversely, Michigan State projects to be between a two- and five-point underdog (with at least a 30% chance to win) in five games. Those games are the road games at Illinois, Michigan, UCLA, Ohio State, and Maryland.

The remaining five contests all project to have spreads no higher than 3.5 points (between 50% and 65% odds). This group of games includes the road tests at Northwestern and Iowa as well as the home games against Oregon, Illinois, and Michigan.

Figure 1 also suggests that Michigan State best get off to a strong start, because the schedule is heavily back loaded. Three of easiest five games on the schedule occur in the first four games and seven of the easiest 11 games occur in the first half of the schedule. This includes the two wins at Minnesota and against Nebraska that are already in the books

In contrast, the last half of the schedule and especially the final seven games are brutal. The toughest stretch is from mid to late February where the Spartans play at Illinois, versus Purdue, at Michigan, and at Maryland in consecutive games.

If the Spartans intend to compete for a Big Ten Championship, which is always the goal in East Lansing, they are going to need to get off to a hot start. In the next section we will see that a final record of 16-4 may be needed to hang a regular season banner. A lot of those wins are going to need to come before February 1.