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Published Sep 13, 2023
UW vs. MSU 3-2-1 Preview: 3 things we want to see, 2 key stats, 1 best bet
Matt Sheehan  •  Spartans Illustrated
Staff Writer

So rumor has It there is actually a game in East Lansing this weekend.

Enough of talking about phone calls and buyouts. Let's pick up the 3-2-1 Preview with taking a gander at what it will take for the Michigan State Spartans to stun the No. 8-ranked Washington Huskies, and what makes their offense so potent.

Let's jump into it.

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3 Things We Want To See

The 2021 Miami game

Back in the glory days of 2021, Michigan State played a game on a beautiful 218-degree (or at least it felt like it) day in Miami. The Spartans gave up 388 passing yards. They saw the Hurricanes get a whopping 29 first downs. And yet…they held them to 17 points in (what used to be) a signature win in the Mel Tucker Era.

The strategy here is two options: Force four turnovers like MSU did on that wonderful afternoon in Florida OR…three words I’m sure you are sick of reading: "Bend, Don’t Break."

It’s a lot to ask for to create four turnovers, but MSU will inevitably see UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throw for upward of 380 yards like Miami's D’Eriq King in 2021. Can the Spartans batten down the hatches in the red zone and limit the Huskies on their running plays and make them settle for field goals? Stay tuned.

An efficient run game

This is obviously something you want to see every game, but in games like this it REALLY matters. Washington’s offense can score in 17 seconds – how many times did we see that last year? The solution to mitigate that damage – move the ball on the ground and chew up as much clock as possible. These new running clock rules after first downs will only help with that, too.

Last year, MSU struggled with time of possession and picking up first downs, but with a running game on the shoulders of Nathan Carter, who currently leads the Big Ten in rushing yards (224), it should improve. Question is, will Jalen Berger or Jaren Mangham be healthy enough for this game? Being able to spell Carter at times will obviously be crucial to keeping him fresh.

Strong four-man rushes

I think the key to success won’t just be getting to the quarterback, but doing so with the four guys up front. Penix, in what feels like his 11th college football season (it's actually his sixth), is experienced enough to notice blitzes and throw it to the gaps the linebackers leave with his incredibly talented receivers.

The more panic for Penix, the merrier, and the more times the Spartans can do that with seven still in coverage the better.

2 Key Stats

10

Those are the number of 30-plus yard passing plays by Washington this season, which is best in the nation. The Huskies also have the second-highest 20-plus yard passing plays, with 18 such plays.

Point blank, this team brings the fireworks in the passing game. And while the Huskies' first two games were against Boise State and Tulsa, with their stable of future NFL receivers, they will be a tough machine to slow down. Consider this your "Fear Factor" stat of the week.

1-3

That’s Penix’s record in his first road games of the season as a starting quarterback. The lone win was at Rutgers in Week Two of the 2020 COVID-19 shortened season. Outside of that, his teams have dropped their first games on the road when he is the starter (loss at Michigan State in 2019, at Iowa in 2021 and at UCLA in 2022).

There’s no place like home, and Penix’s track record in road openers might give a little bit of hope to Michigan State fans. Of course, he's also had plenty of success against MSU as well.

1 Best Bet

MSU +16.5, over/under 57

There are too many outside factors in this game for me to pick a side, I’m sorry if that makes me a coward. Will this team rally around each other and stun the world in front of a raucous Green and White home crowd? Perhaps. Could the Spartans also see the Huskies go up 21-0 moments after the coin toss and have their mental balloon deflated instantly? Possibly.

I like Washington scoring at least 40 here and MSU scoring at least 20.

Pick: Over 57

Record: 1-1 (permanently banning myself from picking Nebraska)

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N. Carolina
91
N. Carolina
Michigan St.
94
Arrow
Michigan St.
Michigan St.
63
Michigan St.
Memphis
71
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Michigan St.
72
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Colorado
56
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