The Pre-Tip Read: MSU vs Illinois
EAST LANSING - Tom Izzo had snapped out of Sunday’s feel-good, tearful emotions and firmly back into stalker mode by Monday morning.
Delving into Illinois’ film was enough to make the head coach respect this opponent, and respect the circumstances. As much as Izzo wanted to believe that MSU had wrapped up an NCAA bid with the victory over Wisconsin on Sunday, the Spartans would be wise to avoid leaving the decision in the hands of the judges.
MSU can land a knockout on the NCAA Tournament bubble question if the Spartans can win at Illinois tonight.
The SpartanMag breakdown on MSU vs Illinois:
Illinois is 17-12 overall and 7-9.
Illinois is a 2-point favorite, and I’m not surprised by that line.
Illinois is playing well, playing tough on defense, and they are playing inspired.
MSU is playing inspired too, but MSU has looked its age (young and immature) at times when playing on the road this year (no-show losses at Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State come to mind) - the amazing comeback at Minnesota in late December notwithstanding.
Now, MSU wants to prove it is growing up as a team, and is ready to finish a difficult task at Illinois.
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Illinois fans are wondering if the Illini can get on the NCAA Tournament bubble if the Illini beat Michigan State and Rutgers to finish the regular season at 19-12 and 9-9.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi says the Illini are a long shot to get on the bubble. He said today his numbers don’t put Illinois among the first four out or the next four out, at this time.
Would things change if Illinois finishes the regular season with a five-game win streak and heads into the Big Ten Tournament hoping to make more noise?
That’s their goal. And MSU stands in their way, on Senior Night for the Illini.
SpartanMag correspondent Jeff Karzen, who has been a keen observer of the Illini for years, tells me: “It's not hyperbole to say this is the biggest game of John Groce's Illinois career.”
Know This: If MSU makes the NCAA Tournament, its first-round game might not be as difficult as this game at Illinois on Wednesday night.
Lunardi’s current list of No. 8 and 9 seeds includes Dayton, Arkansas, Xavier, Miami, VCU.
Those teams are obviously pretty good. But what would be tougher? Beating Arkansas or VCU in Salt Lake City, or winning at Illinois on Wednesday night?
Put it this way: Do you think MSU would be favored against Arkansas or VCU?
That’s my point.
MSU is an underdog at Illinois, and in watching Illinois in recent games, I can see why.
MSU is going to need to be quite sharp to win this game.
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Illinois’ last five games:
W at Northwestern, 68-61
L to Penn State, 83-70
W at Iowa, 70-66
W vs. Northwestern, 66-50
W at Nebraska, 73-57
What is Illinois doing well?
They play defense. In their last three games, the Illini have held Nebraska (37.5), Northwestern (32.1) and Iowa (38.9) to less than 40 percent shooting.
They held Northwestern to 33.9 percent shooting in the teams’ first meeting, five games ago.
They have held five of their last six opponents under 40 percent from the field.
“Our guys have fight in them,” Groce said. “I think it’s more of a mindset right now. They care about one another and they are fighting.”
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As for Groce, he is coaching to save his job right now. He is in his fifth year at Illinois.
He made the NCAA Tournament in his first year, and won a game in The Big Dance.
He went to the NIT in the next two years.
Last year, Illinois went 15-19 and stayed home.
He looked like a lame duck a few weeks ago. Illinois’ arena was close to half-empty for the Northwestern game last week. There was a smattering of boos when he was introduced for the pre-game handshake.
This week, Illinois has done a big promotion for students, handing out free tickets. The arena could and should be back near its old, loud, orange self tonight.
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I haven’t watched Illinois closely enough to know what was wrong with their defense earlier in the year, but when I studied their game against Nebraska, I can see why they are playing well on the defensive side of the ball now.
They are into it. They have five guys who move well at all times, even the dumpy looking guy with the Chinese samurai bun.
When I say they are into it, I mean the guys on the court, the guys on the bench, and it’ll be that way with the fans in the stands, as Memorial Coliseum is still one of the toughest places to play in the country - especially when they believe in their team, especially when their team gives them reason to believe, and they think there’s something to play for.
When I say they are into it, I’m mainly talking about the guys playing defense away from the ball. Their knees are bent, they are low, athletic, quick to help. Into it.
When Tom Izzo talks about playing “six eyes” of defense, that means the guy on the ball having help over each shoulder, help from teammates discouraging the drive.
Illinois plays that way. They play “six eyes” defense, in helping against the drive.
With the way they are playing defense right now, I’m astonished to find that Illinois ranks No. 11 in the Big Ten in field goal percentage defense in conference games at .449. [MSU is No. 5, by the way, at .423. Northwestern is No. 1 at .409.]
MSU is playing pretty good defense these days, but they are having trouble getting all five guys into it AND knowledgeable about it, simultaneously. Illinois seems to be a step closer to a finished defensive product than MSU right now.
It’s not like Illinois completely locks everyone down. They just do a good job of having a help defender flash and cut someone off at the elbow or the nail when the on-ball defender gives up a half-step to the dribble drive.
They’ve got each other’s back.
The help defenders arrive on time because they are alert, down and ready when off the ball.
They’re into it.
That’s commendable - especially for a team that everyone thought was dead two or three weeks ago.
(As always in this Big Ten season, there is an outlier to Illinois’ recent defensive trends. In the one game Illinois lost in its last five games, the Illinois allowed Penn State to shoot 57 percent in an 83-70 Nittany Lions victory in Champaign on Feb. 11. I have no explanation for that.)
As for lock-down defenders, freshman point guard Te’Jun Lucas looked the part in the 66-50 victory over Northwestern last week. Lucas got into Northwestern point guard Bryant McIntosh and made things difficult on him. Northwestern went just 5-of-27 from the field in the second half.
A few weeks ago, Lucas wasn’t even getting into games, due to coach’s decision. Now he is becoming an impact freshman point guard.
“He is the front porch of our team, definitely,” Groce said. “When you see him playing like that defensively and you’re standing back as one of the other four guys, if he doesn’t inspire you to compete then you don’t have a pulse.
“He has improved a lot. Defensively, he is starting to grasp the concepts in a more firm way now. Offensively, he is getting more comfortable out there as well.
“He has good vision and can pass and is real good with the ball, but his best attribute is his toughness.”
Groce seems almost apologetic when talking about Lucas, possibly because Lucas played a lesser role earlier in the year and people are wondering why.
Groce points out that Lucas missed much of the summer and the fall after sustaining a fractured foot 12 months ago as a senior at Milwaukee Washington High School.
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In winning four of its last five, Illinois has held opponents to 61, 66, 50 and 57 points.
In addition to holding teams to low field goal percentages, Illinois also tries to control tempo by walking the ball up the court after made baskets, and often after missed shots.
If the Illini were a better rebounding team, this combination would be even tougher to beat Wednesday night.
Illinois isn’t a bad rebounding team. And the battle of the boards could be the determining factor in this game.
Illinois is No. 7 in the Big Ten in rebounding margin in conference games (MSU is No. 3 at +2.1 in conference games).
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Also: Illinois will play a version of a 2-3 zone. It's a match-up 2-3. The two out front do expand out to contest 3-point shooters, similar to the way Syracuse's zone has evolved. They aren't looking to pack it in.
Illinois went to the zone in the last 4 minutes of Sunday's game against Nebraska, and used it to help turn a 3-point deficit into a 2-point lead at the half.
Then Illinois began the second half with the zone.
MSU obviously had to prep for both the help-oriented, tough man-to-man defense, and Illinois' zone.
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KEY MATCHUP:
* Illinois starts three seniors including both wings and the center.
Wing guard Malcolm Hill (6-6, 225, Sr.) is No. 10 in the Big Ten in scoring in conference games. Overall, he is averaging 17.0 points.
Hill is solidly-built and has a versatile game. He can shoot from range, or create off the dribble - for his own shot, or the pass. He can also create off of ball screens like a point guard - especially at the end of a shot clock.
He’s pretty good.
Hill is no longer forcing shots, and is now sharing the ball much better and the team is better for it.
He is starting to settle in with Lucas as the team’s lead guard.
Who guards Hill? Probably Joshua Langford. And that’s a sketchy situation for MSU.
MSU needs full focus and maturation from Langford RIGHT NOW.
Langford fell asleep on a bad assignment early in the Wisconsin game on Sunday. Do that on the road, and it will be harder for MSU to fight back from an early deficit.
Langford was good in the opening minutes against Purdue on offense, but had two bad gaffes on defense at the outset of the second half and ended up with a short benching.
He fogged out at the outset of the first half against Nebraska last week too.
It’s at the time of year, with so much on the line, that Langford needs to solve his personal slippage.
He provided some big-time plays on offense against Wisconsin. He was an overall net positive for the day, despite foul trouble.
Now he needs to continue to be a quality offensive piece, stay out of foul trouble, and become fully accountable on defense.
He might not begin the game guarding Hill. That might be Alvin Ellis’ job.
Ellis is a bit more accountable than Langford on defense, but Ellis is not a cinch to be on task.
Regarless of whether Ellis begins the game guarding Hill, there is no doubt that Langford will guard Hill at some point. And when that happens, Langford needs to make Hill work for his offense.
THE REST OF IT:
Personnel of Note:
PG Te’Jon Lucas (6-0, 170, Fr.) at the point. He’s averaging 5.1 points per game. He is mainly a distributor and defender.
His rising a defensive force. When he matches up against fellow rising freshman Cassius Winston, that will be interesting, and pivotal. Winston has faced some on-ball pressure defense a few times this year, including his matchups with Michigan’s Derrick Walton. This one won’t have the in-state rivalry aspect to it, but it will be a good, crucial test for both players nonetheless.
SG Tracy Abrams (6-2, 185, Sr.). Averaging 8.1 points per game, shooting 41 pct from 3.
Dangerously streaky. He shot 60 percent from 3-point range through the first 12 games of the year, ranking No. 2 in the country in that stat through 12 games.
But then he went through a 9-of-48 (18 percent) slump.
He nailed two big 3-points last week against Northwestern, and then erupted to go 4-of-5 from long range against Nebraska - just in time for a visit from the Spartans.
Langford or Ellis: Get a hand up.
WG Malcolm Hill (6-6, 225, Sr.) is a muscle wing with a mature game, versatile. Leads the team with 85 assists on the year (3.0 per game).
PF Leron Black (6-7, 220, Soph.) is averaging 8.2 points per game. Is not a threat to shoot well from deep but he has attempted 23 3-pointers on the year (making just five. 21 percent).
He hit a face-up 10 footer against Nebraska and led the team in rebounding in that game with 5.
C Maverick Morgan (6-10, 245, Sr.) is the team’s second-leading scorer at 10 points per game, shooting 56 pct from the field and is not a threat to shoot from deep.
He is clunky, robotic, correct. He was quite good in the first half against Nebraska, scoring with the left hand in the post on a drop step, and with the right hand on a jump hook - over 6-foot-11 Nebraska post menace Jordy Tshimanga.
Morgan also hit a medium range jumper, a 16-foot face-up jumper, and nailed a counter-move turn-around jumper.
I mean he looked excellent, although robotic. He had 10 points in the first half on those five field goals, but finished with just 12. They didn’t need more offense from him, as Abrams got hot and the lead grew to double digits.
MESSAGE TO NICK WARD: Ward has out-played better defenders this year than Maverick Morgan. Ward needs to take the next step in his maturation and dominate this matchup without getting into foul trouble.
Ward had a decided edge over the great Ethan Happ on Sunday - when Ward was able to play (and not seated due to foul trouble).
Illinois will feed the post early, and test Ward with Morgan. Morgan is a functional-to-good offensive player. They’ll go to him and try to get Ward in foul trouble.
If Ward is in foul trouble, MSU changes as a team. Add foul trouble to Kenny Goins or Miles Bridges, and MSU has to go into survival mode.
Survival mode on the road isn’t a good thing.
Key To This Game (and every game): Keep Ward out of foul trouble, let him do his damage on the boards, in the post and occasionally with quality rim protection.
Ward, don’t reach and get the silly foul. Don’t play frightened of fouling. But know that the refs can take you out at any moment, so don’t help them with an unnecessary reach or over-the-back foul.
If Ward can stay on the court, and Bridges can snap out of his road funk, the Ward-Bridges tandem should continue to blossom. They are getting a better and better feel for one another, with Bridges operating as a driver looking to dish to Ward. That’s a tough tag team to cover, when they’re rolling and not in foul trouble. That tag team needs to take the next step right now.
* When Illinois goes to the bench, their 3-point shooting improves.
The guy with the Samurai bun, Michael Finke, will come off the bench at 6-foot-10 and shoot from deep. The sophomore is shooting 47 percent from 3-point range in conference games, which is No. 2 in the Big Ten. (He is shooting 40 percent from 3-point range for the year).
He is averaging 7.0 points per game
* Also off the bench, Jalen Coleman-Lands leads the team in 3-point shot attempts with 159 on the year, making 37 percent.
Coleman-Lands was 4-of-5 from 3-point range in a blowout victory over Michigan on Jan. 11. He was 0-of-8 from deep in a loss to Minnesota on Feb. 4.
Most recently, he was a toasty 3-of-5 from downtown against Nebraska, including one from NBA range, and a deep shot off a baseline in-bound play.
Note to Matt McQuaid, you need to get a hand up, too.
* Kipper Nichols (6-6, 225, Fr.) is averaging 7.5 points per game in his last six outings. He scored 16 against Minnesota. He’s an energy guy who also blocks some shots.
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THE LATEST ON MSU: Analyzing The 2-PG LINUEP
With Ellis in foul trouble, MSU went with a two-point guard lineup for long stretches of Sunday’s game against Wisconsin - including the last 10:37 of the first half.
MSU enjoyed immediate success with the combination of Winston and TumTum Nairn on the court together, but then the success tailed off against the Badgers.
MSU experimented with a Winston/Nairn combination earlier in the season, but scrapped around the outset of the Big Ten season.
But with Eron Harris being lost for the season, the need arose to get minutes out of Winston at the wing guard position.
If or when Ellis, Langford or McQuaid get into foul trouble, the obvious option is for Winston to see more time at the two.
MSU led 21-19 when Izzo inserted the two-point lineup on Sunday.
The lead grew to 27-19 when Winston was left unguarded on the right wing for a 3-pointer as the Badger wing defender assumed someone else was supposed to be checking Winston.
MSU built leads of 34-21 and 36-23 as the two-point lineup gained momentum.
With the two point guards on the court, turnovers subsided.
Interestingly, MSU began creating more offense off the dribble with the two points on the floor, rather than off the pass.
McQuaid drove for an and-out. He also drove and created a pull-up jumper for himself, off a crossover move.
Bridges drove and fed Ward for a lay-up.
But then Ward left the court with his second foul, and MSU’s backcourt may have started to grow tired. It’s rare for an MSU guard to play 10 straight minutes, and exceedingly rare for two guards to play 10 straight minutes together.
With Ward gone and MSU starting to lose efficiency, Wisconsin attacked inside and ended the first half on a 14-2 run.
In the second half, MSU went back to the two-PG lineup with 6:50 remaining, with mixed results.
MSU led 70-59 at the time when Langford went out with his fourth foul. Ellis had three fouls at the time but wasn’t playing well.
The two-PG lineup yielded five straight empty possessions. MSU went to a form of continuity motion offense with ball screens and cuts rather than feeding Ward in the post. The offense often resulted in forced shot attempts at the end of the shot clock.
Bridges, Winston (2) and McQuaid (2) missed difficult shots on those possessions, and Ward missed a put-back.
Wisconsin cut the lead to 72-66 with 3:12 left when Izzo took Winston out and went back with Langford or Ellis.
Nairn came back on offense-for-defense subs in the late stages.
THE TAKEAWAY: Izzo spent the first two-thirds of the season trying to establish a set rotation, something he sees as a requirement for consistent, winning basketball in his system.
MSU seemed to establishing a rotation, with Ellis coming on in the second half of his senior year. But then Harris went down with the injury, and now things are in flux again.
MSU might not prefer to go with a two-PG lineup in most games. And Izzo certainly doesn’t want to leave two guards on the court for 10 straight minutes, as it would drastically hurt MSU’s transition system.
But the Spartan backcourt is now facing a situation similar to that of MSU’s frontcourt. A little bit of foul trouble puts things into scramble-and-survive mode.
THE GOOD NEWS: If Ward and Bridges stay out of foul trouble, stay on the court, and grow together, and dominate together, they provide a combination that few teams in America can match. That’s not enough to win by itself, but it’s an impressive thing to have under the hood.
From there, if MSU continues to shoot free throws well, and continues to avoid the old turnover problem, then the opponent had better hope that MSU experiences foul trouble or poor shooting on the wing because Michigan State can be darn good when all of these boxes are checked positively. How good? We haven’t seen the full bore sample yet.
Getting March-level defensive awareness from Langford and Ward is the next frontier.
ADD IT ALL UP:
COMP’S TAKE: More than 60 percent of the time, the smart choice is to pick with the trends, not against them. Go with the known commodity rather than trying to time when the trend is going to change.
This time, the trends are all over the place.
This time, both teams have been riding roller coasters of success and failure all year - as has most of the Big Ten.
This time, both teams seem to be rising toward their best basketball of the year.
Can we EXPECT either team to keep playing well?
No. You can’t expect anything out of any team in the Big Ten this year, except maybe Rutgers.
Will one of these teams continue to play well, for this particular game? Probably.
Which one? Most likely, it’s Illinois. I like their maturity and cohesiveness on defense.
MSU’s hopes can be dashed by foul trouble more so than Illinois’.
MSU has an edge in talent (when Ward or another “big man” isn’t in foul trouble, and when Bridges is properly channeled, which isn’t all the time for a road game).
The home team usually shoots better in its own environs, while the road team usually doesn’t shoot its best on the road. That’s been tested over time for years, and that’s the scale-tipper on why Illinois is favored.
If both teams play their B game, Michigan State wins.
Illinois seems a bit more likely to find its B game.
But MSU is out to tear up the trends of this season and meld things back into the usual Izzo trends of March.
To do that, they need their defense and rebounding to travel with them for this game. The defense has been improving. Ward went on the blink with his ball-screen defense on Sunday. He played that area of the game well in the first half of the Nebraska game, then tailed off in the second half.
Is he ready to lock in and grow up? If so, he could make the difference in this game and spell the difference for this season for Groce, and for MSU’s tournament future.
If Bridges and Ward can play extended minutes, Illinois might not be able to answer this blossoming tandem.
In particular, watch for Bridges creating off the dribble, for himself, or for the pass. When he drives to pass, Ward has become his favorite target. It’s a late-season trend, but it packs much potential.
KARZEN’S TAKE:
Up until a few weeks ago, I definitely would've said MSU will win. I still lean slightly that way but now think it will be close.
* Illinois has been a tough watch most of the season. Even in victories, it was a struggle for them and they never passed the eye test. Tons of standing around on offense. Countless possessions where they give Malcolm Hill the ball with 7 on the shot clock and basically said "please do something."
* Defense was even worse. Opponents got as many open 3s as they wanted and guards couldn't stay in front of anybody.
* Part of this surge is because of a shortened bench. They're basically playing 8 now and it's been addition by subtraction. Seniors Thorne and Tate don't play anymore. It took Groce forever to make this change as he seemed to think a deep bench was a team strength coming into the year. Turned out to be wrong.
* Te'Jon Lucas and Kipper Nichols. These two freshmen have infused much needed energy. Lucas is a gifted passer who sees things others don't. He's also been a ton better than expected on D and finally gives them a guard who can stay in front of the ball. Him vs Winston will be fun to watch. Nichols might be the best athlete on the team and he's given them a wing defender who can rebound.
If they miss the tournament, and thusly Groce loses his job, waiting too long to insert Lucas as starting PG could be the number one reason.
It's not hyperbole to say this is the biggest game of John Groce's Illinois career.
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A final note from Publisher Jim Comparoni: Happy March.