The 3-2-1: Heading down the stretch

EAST LANSING - Three things we learned during Michigan State’s 88-72 victory over Nebraska at Breslin Center on Thursday night, two questions and one prediction.

1. Tom Izzo said the team would be “on lock-down” this week and “ready to go,” with an “us-against-the-world” mentality. And I think the Spartans delivered in those categories in this game, and I think Izzo delivered in getting them geared up for what was nearly a must-win situation.

The Spartans didn’t play with great efficiency, but they played one of their best collective-effort games of the year. That’s a good sign.

If they can harness this level of effort, maintain a low number of turnovers and mix in some better shooting percentages, then this becomes a team that belongs in the NCAA Tournament and is even capable of doing some damage.

Those are difficult pieces to manage, and maybe the Spartans aren’t capable of delivering in those areas against all styles of opponents. But with the right draw in the right situation, I can see why Izzo hasn’t given up on the hopes of putting together another memorable March. After this victory, the Spartans are a big step closer to returning to the NCAA Tournament for a 20th straight year.

**

Izzo said this week he kind of enjoyed “in a sick way” the challenge of being on the NCAA Tournament bubble. He has responded well to a tense situation. He didn’t fret and crumble. He bowed up and came back strong, believed in the team, and they responded - even in the face of losing senior starter Eron Harris.

Izzo criticized his team’s ball screen defense in the second half, as the Spartans were unable to build on a 23-point lead. But I thought ball screen defense was excellent in the first half, especially where TumTum Nairn and Nick Ward were concerned. And I suspect that Izzo felt good about Ward’s defense in the first half of that game too. But Izzo didn’t give Ward many (any) compliments after this game.

Izzo is still getting a feel for Ward, and how well he handles pats on the back. At this stage of the season, with crucial games on tap, I suspect that Izzo didn’t want to chance it, didn’t want to publicly compliment Ward. Izzo needs a huge game from the big freshman on Sunday, not just in terms of scoring, but in terms of playing within himself on defense against Wisconsin post ace Ethan Happ.

Alvin Ellis didn’t shoot well (1 of 6 from the field), and he attempted one poor shot, a rushed 3-pointer in transition. But he played hard, thanks maybe in part to an angry lecture from Izzo on the sidelines about 10 minutes into the game.

Nairn played hard, pushed the tempo nicely. Bridges played hard and within himself.

The Spartans ran well in transition, better than usual, more like some of the old Spartan teams of March. It's clear they worked on improving their outlet passes and wing sprints.

MSU defended pretty well (holding Nebraska to 39 percent shooting) and rebounded well (a +5 on the boards). When the Spartans do those things, they can win by 16 even when going 4-of-15 from 3-point range and shooting 48 percent as a team as they did on this night.

The keys: Defense, rebounding, transition game, and a limited number of turnovers. Take those four items and add a better shooting percentage, and this team becomes quite dangerous.

But this team might not be able to do all of those things when hit with just a little bit of foul trouble. With this team, a little bit of foul trouble can become a lot of the problem.

Overall, the defense, rebounding and transition game (without turnovers) provided a good baseline for the possibility of betting performances to come in key games against Wisconsin, Illinois and Maryland to finish the regular season.

2. A few things changed with Harris out of the lineup. Among them:

* Ellis started for the first time this season.

* Joshua Langford is joining Ellis in playing more minutes.

* Matt McQuaid became the first wing guard off the bench.

* Cassius Winston played some wing guard, sharing the backcourt with Nairn for a handful of minutes for the first time in a couple of months.

The results:

* Ellis wasn’t great. But he stayed within himself and played tough.

Ellis was 1-of-6 from the field and had three turnovers, including a pair of errant entry passes from the wing. He played 28 minutes - his most logging 36 (in overtime) at Minnesota and 29 the next game against Northwestern, back in late December when Bridges was out of the lineup with an injury.

“Alvin Ellis was a little sloppy early and I was worried,” Izzo said. “I think he has been waiting for three and a half years to start and I was worried that he might try to over do it a little bit. But he settled down.

* Langford logged 27 minutes. This game marked the first time that Langford and Ellis have each played more than 27 minutes while Bridges was available.

Usually one player plays more than the other. But now with Harris out, the tandem of Ellis and Langford will become a staple for the rest of the season.

Langford rang up a season-high 17 points, thanks largely to seven trips to the foul line (going 6-of-7 from the stripe).

Langford was 5-of-12 from the floor but seemed to shoot better than that. He didn’t seem inefficient. He was aggressive in his takes, and didn’t step out of his comfort zone. He was good on offense.

“Josh definitely took a giant step,” Izzo said, unafraid to heap some praise on this freshman. “The last couple of days he has been sick. Early in the week he missed some of practice, throwing up and everything. Then he bounced back and had a really good practice yesterday.”

Langford had lapses on defense with a pair of erred switch assignments that resulted in Nebraska 3-pointers in the opening minutes of the second half. It marked the second straight game that Langford fogged out on defense at the beginning of the second half. MSU needs Langford to solve that issue right now, because there aren’t many other options for Izzo to go to. Langford and Ellis are pretty much it.

Despite the assignment errors, Izzo continues to like Langford’s potential on defense, among other things.

“Josh is coming,” Izzo said. “He’s coming. It’s taking him longer. He’s a unique kid, but he’s getting more comfortable and more confident and he’s going to need to keep doing that. He can really guard, too. He went in there and got a couple of rebounds. He got two or three offensive rebounds early. I think he’s going to do a better job of that.”

* Playing Nairn and Winston in the backcourt together gives the Spartans a racehorse vibe, with the pass accentuated. They were excited to play together, and they were productive as a tandem.

The Spartans led by 17 when they entered the game together with 15:58 remaining in the game. Three minutes later, when Nairn checked out, the Spartans had upped their lead to 22 points at 62-40. During that stretch, Winston had two assists and Nairn had one, and Winston had a lay-up and a steal. Nairn had a turnover, committing a traveling violation on an aggressive push.

Izzo liked the energy.

“Defensively, we still have some work to do,” Izzo said. “The problem is that when we have those freshmen in there, especially those guards, we sometimes really struggle defensively,” Izzo said. “That’s where they both have to improve if we are going to become a really good team.”

* McQuaid is going to need to be better off the bench than he’s been most of the season. He was average-to-middling again in this game. But his defense and rebounding were functional.

If he can provide those two things and hit one or two jump shots per game, then he becomes a plus role player. That's not a lot to ask. He can do it. He needs to do it, now that MSU no longer has Ellis delivering a punch off the bench.

But McQuaid had to sit for most of the first half after getting a pair of fouls.

“When McQuaid was out with foul trouble right away, we don’t have many people left," Izzo said. "We only have, I think, eight actual recruiting scholarship guys here. Kenny Goins got in a little foul trouble early too along with McQuaid so that left those four freshmen in there quite a bit. I think they resposnded. I just think they have to learn how to play both ends of the court. For the last two games, we are fouling too much. We have to do a better job with that."

3. Bridges is trying to provide the increased offensive aggressiveness that Izzo is calling for.

Izzo wants Bridges to attack off the dribble more when facing up. Izzo is also calling for Bridges to get more touches in the post.

Izzo wants more offensive sets going through Bridges. And he wants Bridges to make more executive decisions.

Izzo didn’t think Bridges faced up and went to work enough in last weekend’s game at Purdue.

Bridges seems to be more wise about avoiding charge fouls than he was in November and December.

If this team is going to get into the NCAA Tournament and stand a chance of winning a game (or two), they’re going to need big No. 22 to saddle up and carry the team during important stretches. Izzo is prepping Bridges to do just that.

As for this game, Bridges’ assortment of offensive flair was on full display, with a little extra aggressiveness and all the versatility.

+ He made a difficult turn-around jumper look somewhat easy (giving MSU a 3-0 lead).

+ He drove baseline through contact for a power lay-up, giving MSU a 37-26 lead (that’s the take-over aggressiveness Izzo is trying to cultivate).

+ He finished a transition opportunity with a crossover dribble from the left wing and strong take to the rim (38-28). That was a high-end move.

+ There was the alley-oop dunk off the glass from Winston (40-28).

+ And he nailed a 3-pointer from the left corner to bust Nebraska’s zone (43-29) and key MSU’s pivotal run at the end of the first half.

Saddle up.

+ In the second half, he converted a driving, spinning, hanging field goal for an and-one (52-31).

+ And then when Izzo called for him to post up, he went to work against a smaller defender with the fastest drop step we've seen all season, finishing the lay-up for an and-one (82-58).

The green-out crowd chanted “One more year!”

When hearing the chant, Izzo dropped his head and looked to the court. He agreed with them.

Bridges might have cracked a smile, but forget that noise. As much as he loves it around here, Sunday will be his last game at Breslin.

TWO QUESTIONS:

1. This team responded with high energy and good emotion in its first game without Eron Harris. Now can they make a habit of it? Or was this high level of collective effort a one-off deal?

Bridges says the team is playing for Harris. That’s a noble ideal. It remains to be seen if they can keep things dialed up that high. It’s late enough in the season, with enough at stake, to turn it up to 11 and try to keep it there.

2. This team has been reliant on the four freshmen all season. With Harris out, it becomes even more of a freshman-based team.

“Are the freshmen going to take over?” Izzo asked rhetorically. “Nick (Ward) and Miles (Bridges) have been fairly consistent. I thought Miles played good. As I told him, I didn’t think he played great. He got one rebound in second half and he was disappointed about that. He didn’t shoot as well from the free throw line as he has been shooting. I still need him to be more aggressive.

“I thought Nick missed some good shots early. Josh hit a couple of shots, but at 5-of-12, he’s got some work to do yet.

“They definitely looked more aggressive; they looked more comfortable. That part of it was great.”

For it all to work, the two veterans - Nairn and Ellis - have to play the best basketball of their careers. Ellis has been doing that for the past month. Now he has to do it as a starter, and continue to reduce his foggy moments.

Nairn was a plus player in this game, starting with his defense against a quality penetration threat in Glynn Watson. Tum was a little messy with some of his passes. But overall, he pushed the break, moved the ball and his weaknesses weren't evident.

ONE PREDICTION

1. I’ll up Michigan State’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament to about 72 percent. Translation: I’m predicting that the Spartans will make the field.

That’s not a bold prediction. It’s merely a prediction. And it’s subject to change, based on Sunday’s outcome. So consider this merely a tote board reading. The situation is fluid.

If the Spartans had lost to Nebraska, I would have dropped the meter below 49 percent for the first time all season.

This win against Nebraska isn’t necessarily a quality win on the resumé. Avoiding a loss was the first order of business. Winning comfortably, and flexing some muscle with defense, rebounding and the fastbreak had an Izzo/March feel to it. And Izzo is angrily, smilingly carrying himself with an Izzo/March feel to it.

Change that to 73.

You can take that to mean that I believe there’s a 73 percent chance that MSU will win at least two more games prior to Selection Sunday.

You think I’m waffling too much? You would rather I come strong with a lead-pipe cinch prediction? Well yeah, I would like to do that too. But have you watched the Big Ten and Michigan State this year? There are no lead-pipe cinches.

Change it back to 72.