Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State v. Wisconsin

MADISON, Wis. - Let’s cut to the chase.

I would take Ohio State to beat Wisconsin by at least 10 if they played this weekend, maybe more. That gives you an idea of what I think about Wisconsin.

The Badgers do a few things very well. They are a knuckleball, and they benefit from their oddness.

But the Badgers are not a complete team. Their QB is not good or comfortable (or perhaps not trusted) on third-and-medium, much less third-and-long.

Wisconsin boasts some hellacious stats this year. But the more I watched them, especially their game against Northwestern, the more I gave Michigan State a chance to compete in this game and possibly win.

Get them in third-and-medium on a regular basis, and third-and-long more than occasionally, and they become quite pedestrian, even archaic.

The trick is to hold firm and tough long enough on first and second down to get them into third down. Michigan wasn’t able to do that.

How do you do that?

1. Stop the run. That’s easy to say, hard to do. Northwestern did it with firm defensive tackle play vs interior double-team blocks. Michigan State can replicate that.

2. Cover the RBs on short passes (swing passes, short wheels, angle routes). That might mean skewing safeties a little bit away from WR threats, but sometimes you have to rob Peter to pay Paul. Wisconsin is much more likely to try to nickle-and-dime you with short passes to the RB or TE than to attack you deep. I didn’t see ONE intermediate pass (thrown between 11 and 20 yards) in the eight quarters I charted (4Qs vs Northwestern, 1H vs Michigan and Kent State). That tells me they don’t trust QB Jack Coan to make intricate reads and throws.

Stop the run and MAKE Coan attempt intricate reads and throws. If you get him to third-and-medium or third-and-long in a tight game, let’s see how he does.

Third-and-medium at midfield, by the way, is usually a run play for Wisconsin. They will come back on fourth-and-two with the hippo backfield (two reserve offensive linemen as fullbacks) and pick up fourth-and-two with no problem, against other opponents anyway.

3. Look for change-ups on p-and-10 (p-and-10 is the first play of the drive). Wisconsin will go “off the board” and do something different on the first play of a drive. That might mean a roll-out pass, a play-action pass, zone read, lead draw. They won’t run their staple powers or counters on p-and-10. They’ll do something a little different on p-and-10. It’s obviously scripted that way. Be ready for a change-up on p-and-10.

Wisconsin can be predictable, but that doesn’t mean you can stop them. Michigan surely couldn’t. Michigan was without DT Michael Dwumfour in that game. He’s back and he makes a difference. If he had played in the game, Wisconsin still would have won but it wouldn’t have looked so much like men vs boys.

So Here’s The First Question:

1. Is Michigan State equipped AND fresh enough to stand firm on defense against Wisconsin?

On paper, on reputation, on eye test, the answer SHOULD be yes. Or, in the least, Michigan State has as good a chance as anyone on Wisconsin’s schedule to stand firm against the run.

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