Dr. Green and White Bad Betting Advice, Week 13: Gratitude

This week I received one of those weekly e-mails from my child's school. Inside, the principle explained that the students were learning about the concept of gratitude as a module in their ongoing Positivity Project. (As the self-appointed Chief Optimism Officer here, I strongly approve of this activity.)

"Gratitude is the quality of feeling and expressing thankfulness and appreciation," the newsletter explained. "It is about being aware of the consideration, kindness, and generosity of others. Gratitude is not about ignoring the negative aspects of life; it’s simply being aware of and thankful for what is good."

The newsletter also stated that "The character strength of gratitude has also been found to be the single best predictor of individual well being."

Considering the season of Thanksgiving and the fact that Michigan State football this season could be considered a "negative aspects of life," I thought that this was a message that Spartan fans need to hear this week.

In this vein, I thought that I would share the Michigan State-related things that as an alumnus, I am thankful for this year.

I am grateful that through the adversity that the players have faced all year, none of which was their fault, they have stayed together and continued to play hard every week. I am grateful that, so far, attrition has been minimal.

I am grateful for Athletic Director Alan Haller and the professional way that he has handled both the Mel Tucker saga, Broad of Trustee drama, and the head coaching search. Make no mistake that there are less than ethical folks out there just waiting to criticize Haller and Michigan State no matter which decision they make. Haller has remained above the fray, and I am confident that he will make an excellent hire.

I am grateful that when people in the Michigan State community make mistakes (which we all do), they own up to it and take responsibility. It is a refreshing contrast to other Universities who instead deflect, deny, make excuses, issue statements, and file injunctions when faced with overwhelming evidence of extreme ethical misconduct and a lack of sportsmanship.

Here I usually focus on football, but I am also grateful for Tom Izzo. The man is a living legend, and the Michigan State community is blessed to have him. It is no coincidence that when tragedy struck campus back in February, the only thing that Spartan Nation needed to hear was for Tom Izzo to tell us that everything was going to be OK. He did, and we all got through it together.

I am grateful for the privilege of being able to use this format to share my thoughts and various mathematical calculations about sports. Even in tough years, the #math makes it fun for me, and I hope it makes it fun for you as well. I am grateful for my amazing colleagues here at Spartans Illustrated and for each and every person reading this.

Finally, I am grateful for one more chance this year to watch the Green and White take the field against Penn State. We only get 12 chances a year. Let's make the best out of it that we can.

The series between the Spartans and the Penn State Nittany Lions is as even as it could get. It is currently tied at 18-18-1. The series started back in 1914 and the Spartans were dominant in the early years. Michigan State went 8-1-1 in the 10 games played between 1914 and 1966.

After an almost 30-year hiatus, Penn State would have the advantage in the first decade of the school's Big Ten membership. The Nittany Lions won eight of the first 10 games from 1993 to 2003. Since then, the series has been more back-and-forth with no team winning more than three games in a row.

Remarkably, the series is also even against the spread as well. Since 1997, the Spartans are 11-11-1.

As for this year's contest, Penn State opened as a 20-point favorite against the Spartans, which is the second largest spread on record. In 2006, the spread was 21 points and the Nittany Lions wound up winning 61-7.

This is only the second time on record where Michigan State has been a double-digit underdog in a "home" game. Michigan State upset Penn State in 2017 as a 10-point underdog in Spartan Stadium

I can see a scenario where Michigan State is competitive in this game. Penn State has struggled recently on offense, and starting quarterback Drew Allar is likely not 100%. At times this year, MSU has played stout run defense. I can easily imagine a low-scoring game where a late tipped ball pick-six could even result in an upset win to close out the season.

Unfortunately, the way that injuries are mounting up, especially on the defensive line, it is more likely that Penn State will be able to run the ball up and down the field as they run the score up on the Spartans in Ford Field. Michigan State struggles to move the ball and Penn State cruises to victory.

My ungrateful computer is very high on Penn State and has the Lions winning be closer to 30 points. My official final score prediction is Penn State 38, Michigan State 9.